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We’re midway through the football calendar year and, as expected, contenders for the 2024 men’s Ballon d’Or award have emerged. With current holder, Lionel Messi and arch-rival, Cristiano Ronaldo now plying their trades beyond European borders, we are officially in a new era. Not only are these football icons past their prime, there has also never been a Ballon d’Or winner playing outside Europe.  

The last player to make the Ballon d’Or top 10 while playing outside of Europe was Santos’ 19-year-old Neymar Jr. back in 2011 who stunned the football world by finishing 10th in the voting. It’s important to clarify that while Lionel Messi won the 2023 Ballon d’Or as a registered Inter Miami player, the year in review for that edition of the award was August 2022 - June 2023 during which he was a Paris Saint-Germain player.  

**The factors that will affect this year’s Ballon d’Or**  

This year’s Ballon d’Or assessment period has five major international tournaments, with two already concluded and three slated for the summer. The AFC Asian Cup and AFCON 2023 are in the rearview mirror, while the Copa America, EUROs, and Olympics are scheduled for the coming months. History shows that the outcomes of the AFC Asian Cup and AFCON are unlikely to influence the award’s recipient. Former president of Liberia, George Weah, remains the only African player to have clinched the Ballon d’Or, achieving this feat a year after his country failed to qualify for the 1994 edition of the AFCON.  

Conversely, despite winning multiple AFCON titles with the Cameroon national football team, Samuel Eto’o - arguably the greatest player the continent has produced in the last 25 years - never got his hands on the prestigious accolade. In contrast, the Copa America, EUROs, and Olympics have historically played pivotal roles in determining the award winner, warranting special attention as we dish out betting tips in this piece. While some argue that it’s unjust to discount the impact of the AFCON, especially given the tournament’s exceptional quality this year, this trend is unlikely to change. 

With that said, here are some of the early contenders for this year’s Ballon d’Or award.  

 

**Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid | England)** 

£100m is a hefty price-tag to justify, but Jude Bellingham has done just that since his move to Real Madrid. The Englishman has surpassed expectations and currently leads LaLiga’s scoring chart with 16 goals - not bad for a midfielder. His goals have played a huge part in Real Madrid’s outstanding league campaign, and they sit 7 points clear on the standings with 10 games left to play. Should the former Birmingham player lead Real Madrid to its 15th Champions League title at the end of the season, that’ll definitely earn him a lot of first place votes.  

The upcoming EUROs could also see Bellingham hit another level of stardom. In the last EUROs, England were beaten finalists and given the maturity in the squad, there is an expectation that they could go all the way this time around.

● Bet on Real Madrid to Win the Champions League 

● Bet on Jude Bellingham to win the 2024 Ballon d'Or 

**Harry Kane (Bayern Munich | England)**  

Similar to Jude Bellingham’s situation, success in the EUROs with England could see Harry Kane become the first Englishman to win the Ballon d’Or since Michael Owen in 2001, and the first Bayern player to do so since Karl-Heinz Rummenigge did in 1981. Harry Kane hasn’t enjoyed the team success he would have hoped for when he made the move from England to Germany. Bayern Munich lost the DFL Supercup on his debut, got knocked out of the DFB Pokal by 3rd-tier side FC Saarbrücken and are 10 points behind Bayer Leverkusen in the league where Bundesliga results haven’t gone the team’s way, [leading some superstitious fans to question if the England captain brought a jinx with him from Tottenham.](https://m.betking.com/blog/news/how-valid-is-the-tottenham-hotspur-curse/)  

On a personal level, though, Harry Kane has been breathtaking in front of goal. The England captain has 36 goals and 11 assists for Bayern Munich across all competitions, including 6 braces and 4 hat-tricks. With 30 league goals scored, he is just 12 goals away from breaking Robert Lewandowski’s record of 41 Bundesliga goals scored in a single campaign.  

● Bet on England to Win EURO 2024  

● Bet on Harry Kane to win the 2024 Ballon d’or 

**Lautaro Martínez (Inter | Argentina)** 

Ever since losing his starting position in the Argentine national team at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, Lautaro Martínez has been playing at an exceptionally high level. Last season, he had 28 goals and 11 assists as Inter won the Supercoppa Italiana and reached the final of the Champions League.  

Since being named captain of the Nerazzurri, he has improved even further. He is currently leading the Serie A scoring chart with 23 goals, and has Inter 16 points clear at the top of the league. He has scored 26 goals in all competitions, and should Argentina win the Copa America with him playing a prominent role, he will be a top candidate for the award.  

● Bet on Argentina to Win the Copa America 

● Bet on Lautaro Martinez to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or 

**Erling Haaland (Manchester City | Norway)** 

Last year, Erling Haaland had a debut season in England for the ages. He netted 52 goals in 53 matches across all competitions for Manchester City, shattering many individual records and guiding the Cityzens to their own treble - a feat they share with only their city rivals, Manchester United. He won multiple Golden Boots and established himself as one of the scariest EPL top scorers we’ve ever seen. Yet, this was not enough for him to get his hands on the Ballon d’Or. The Norwegian finished second in the voting behind Lionel Messi who had won the World Cup with Argentina; a decision that still sparks debates till this day.  

This season, injuries have slowed him down a bit and he might fall short of last year’s outrageous numbers. Also, playing for Norway means he will not be at the upcoming EUROs. However, if he does the unthinkable and helps Manchester City retain the treble, we could see him become the first Premier League player to win the Ballon d’Or since Cristiano Ronaldo in 2008. 

● Bet on Manchester City to Retain the Champions League 

● Bet on Erling Haaland to Win the EPL Golden Boot 

● Bet on Erling Haaland to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or 

**Vinicius Jr. (Real Madrid | Brazil)** 

A 6th place finish in last season’s Ballon d’Or voting felt like the official crowning of Vinicius Jr. as a World-Class player. A year before that, he scored the winning goal for Real Madrid in a 1-0 victory over Liverpool in the Champions League final as Los Blancos secured their record-extending 14th title. Since then, there has been a noticeable improvement on his side as he has transformed from the scrawny kid more focused on performing for the cameras to a certified match-winner and arguably the best player in the world at his position.  

This season, Real Madrid will win LaLiga, barring a collapse, and they remain among the heavy favourites for the Champions League. Additionally, with Neymar expected to miss the Copa America in the summer, Vinicius will probably be Brazil’s focal point in attack. Should he help secure the title for the Brazilians, he would undoubtedly be a top choice for voters for the award. 

● Bet on Brazil to Win the Copa America 

● Bet on Vinicius Jr to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or 

**Phil Foden (Manchester City | England)** 

With 18 goals and 10 assists so far this season, Phil Foden is having the most productive season of his career. However, his influence on Manchester City transcends mere statistics. Following the departure of key attacking players like Riyad Mahrez and İlkay Gündoğan last summer, and with Kevin De Bruyne sidelined for four months after sustaining an injury on the opening day of the season, Pep Guardiola needed Foden to step up – and he did. Foden’s exceptional ability as a dual-threat attacker, capable of both scoring and assisting, makes him one of the most lethal players in the modern game, and many have tipped him to win the PFA Player of the Year award, ahead of Erling Haaland, Bukayo Saka, Mo Salah, and Ollie Watkins. A stellar performance in the upcoming EUROs with the Three Lions would further bolster his prospects of becoming the first Manchester City player to clinch the Ballon d’Or. 

● Bet on Phil Foden to Have 15 or More EPL Goals 

● Bet on Manchester City to Win the EPL

● Bet on Phil Foden to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or 

**Kylian Mbappé (Paris Saint-Germain | France)** 

The football community has long believed that for Kylian Mbappé to win the Ballon d’Or, he would first need to win a Champions League title, which in turn might require him to depart from PSG. While this notion holds merit, this season could see Mbappé potentially winning the award without even donning a Real Madrid jersey.  

In fact, our bet of the day suggests just that, and here’s why. Rumours are that Kylian Mbappé has finally reached an agreement to join Real Madrid, and he will become a Galactico on July 1st. However, a crucial detail in their negotiations was ensuring Mbappé’s participation for France at the Olympics in Paris. With Les Bleus favoured to win the EUROs and Mbappé’s inclusion in the Olympic squad, France becomes the frontrunner for both competitions. Though undoubtedly challenging, there is a scenario where the French captain leads both teams to triumph at the EUROs and the Olympics. If he pulls this off, he definitely will win the Ballon d’Or.  

In addition to these, he still has a valid chance of winning the Champions League with PSG this season. 

● Bet on France to win EURO 2024 

● Bet on Kylian Mbappe to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or . 

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With Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi finally gone, who are the likeliest candidates to win the Ballon d'Or this year? Find out here!

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Early Predictions; Who Wins the 2024 Ballon d’Or?