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In danger of missing the party: The five powerhouses that could miss AFCON 2025
by Astorre Cerebrone
15 Nov 2024
AFCON 2023 was one for the ages, one where every kind of football prediction was defied. From Côte d’Ivoire going from losing 4-0 in front of their fans and on the brink of a group stage elimination to tournament victory, to Ghana exiting in the group stage without winning a game, to the Morocco national football team getting knocked out in the second round in dramatic fashion; almost every top team at the tournament had a shock result.
What that tournament told us was that Africa no longer had small teams, and the gap between the powerhouses and the rest had become almost negligible. If previous tournaments had hinted at it, it was this one that finally drove the point home. It is no longer business as usual in African football.
Anyone who enjoys online sports betting will see one of two things, depending on the person’s philosophy. Either the person sees the unpredictability as a hindrance or as an opportunity. The brave see value where the risk averse see a wall.
If you are one of the brave, this new wave of unpredictability is good news for you. There is a lot of money to be made from it. If you have been following our free betting tips over the recent international breaks, then you would have already gotten great value, that’s what we do.
The AFCON qualifiers have thrown up some massive upsets and even some teams we expected to already have qualification sewn up are struggling to get over the line. Maybe you can find value in their games.
Here are five powerhouses that are in danger of missing AFCON 2025:
● Ghana
Ghana’s descent into mediocrity has been ongoing for a few years, but this year has been particularly disastrous for Ghanaian football. Their AFCON group stage exit in 2022 was seen as an anomaly but their exit this year showed that it was no fluke.
This time around, they looked fragile and there for the taking, with their exit sparking an angry revolt from their own journalists who were present to witness it. The fallout from that embarrassing showing was supposed to lead to changes that would turn things around, but that hasn’t been the case so far.
After four games in their group, they are still winless and have a -3 goal difference. With two games left, they need to overcome a five point deficit to overtake Sudan for the second spot in the group. In order to qualify, they also need Sudan to lose their remaining two games, one of which is against the group’s whipping boys, Niger.
In truth, it looks over for Ghana. Sudan need only a draw to qualify, as they have a superior Head-to-Head record over their West African rivals. Ghana themselves have to go to already qualified Angola to win, a daunting task even though Angola have nothing to play for.
What they must do: Ghana must try to do their own part and hope for the best. It is completely out of their hands now. It would be pointless to hope if they don’t win their own games.
Angola could do them a favour by beating Sudan, but Niger are unlikely to do anything for them. All in all, even if they miraculously make it, a lot would need to change before AFCON 2025 kicks off.
AFCON 2023 was one for the ages, one where every kind of football prediction was defied. From Côte d’Ivoire going from losing 4-0 in front of their fans and on the brink of a group stage elimination to tournament victory, to Ghana exiting in the group stage without winning a game, to the Morocco national football team getting knocked out in the second round in dramatic fashion; almost every top team at the tournament had a shock result.
What that tournament told us was that Africa no longer had small teams, and the gap between the powerhouses and the rest had become almost negligible. If previous tournaments had hinted at it, it was this one that finally drove the point home. It is no longer business as usual in African football.
Anyone who enjoys online sports betting will see one of two things, depending on the person’s philosophy. Either the person sees the unpredictability as a hindrance or as an opportunity. The brave see value where the risk averse see a wall.
If you are one of the brave, this new wave of unpredictability is good news for you. There is a lot of money to be made from it. If you have been following our free betting tips over the recent international breaks, then you would have already gotten great value, that’s what we do.
The AFCON qualifiers have thrown up some massive upsets and even some teams we expected to already have qualification sewn up are struggling to get over the line. Maybe you can find value in their games.
Here are five powerhouses that are in danger of missing AFCON 2025:
● Ghana
Ghana’s descent into mediocrity has been ongoing for a few years, but this year has been particularly disastrous for Ghanaian football. Their AFCON group stage exit in 2022 was seen as an anomaly but their exit this year showed that it was no fluke.
This time around, they looked fragile and there for the taking, with their exit sparking an angry revolt from their own journalists who were present to witness it. The fallout from that embarrassing showing was supposed to lead to changes that would turn things around, but that hasn’t been the case so far.
After four games in their group, they are still winless and have a -3 goal difference. With two games left, they need to overcome a five point deficit to overtake Sudan for the second spot in the group. In order to qualify, they also need Sudan to lose their remaining two games, one of which is against the group’s whipping boys, Niger.
In truth, it looks over for Ghana. Sudan need only a draw to qualify, as they have a superior Head-to-Head record over their West African rivals. Ghana themselves have to go to already qualified Angola to win, a daunting task even though Angola have nothing to play for.
What they must do: Ghana must try to do their own part and hope for the best. It is completely out of their hands now. It would be pointless to hope if they don’t win their own games.
Angola could do them a favour by beating Sudan, but Niger are unlikely to do anything for them. All in all, even if they miraculously make it, a lot would need to change before AFCON 2025 kicks off.
● Bet on Ghana to win against Angola
@2.62
● Bet on Congo to win against South Sudan
@1.93
● Zambia
2012 AFCON Champions, Zambia, have been in a bit of a rut since unexpectedly winning that tournament. That triumph was supposed to usher in a new era of excellence for the country that suffered a tragedy that took away its golden generation in their prime.
Having worked their way back up to being powerhouses on the continent again, things have fallen apart. They are yet to win a game at AFCON since that 2012 edition that they won, in 9 games.
After failing to qualify three consecutive times between 2017 and 2021, they found their way back to the tournament only to get eliminated in the group stage. They have a strong chance of making it to the next one with it being in their hands, but they must get through the two tough games remaining for them in the qualifiers.
Sierra Leone’s draw in Chad on Wednesday means that they can breathe a little. They are two points ahead with a game in hand, but that game is against AFCON champions Côte d’Ivoire, who have now qualified.
The problem for them is, if they fail to win against the Ivorians, they will need to get a result on the final day in Monrovia, where the game against Sierra Leone will be played. The fact it is a neutral venue will count in their favour but the Sierra Leoneans will be heavily motivated in a game that will be winner-takes-all.
A draw would be enough for Zambia that day, but things could get very tense if they go behind.
What they must do: Zambia must ensure that they beat Côte d’Ivoire to avoid any final day drama. Leaving it late to secure qualification could lead to heartbreak, against a team that will come guns blazing to take them out.
They must take advantage of the fact their opponents this week do not have anything to play for and could experiment, although the Ivorians will be wary of losing their second consecutive qualifying game after their defeat to Sierra Leone.
● Zambia
2012 AFCON Champions, Zambia, have been in a bit of a rut since unexpectedly winning that tournament. That triumph was supposed to usher in a new era of excellence for the country that suffered a tragedy that took away its golden generation in their prime.
Having worked their way back up to being powerhouses on the continent again, things have fallen apart. They are yet to win a game at AFCON since that 2012 edition that they won, in 9 games.
After failing to qualify three consecutive times between 2017 and 2021, they found their way back to the tournament only to get eliminated in the group stage. They have a strong chance of making it to the next one with it being in their hands, but they must get through the two tough games remaining for them in the qualifiers.
Sierra Leone’s draw in Chad on Wednesday means that they can breathe a little. They are two points ahead with a game in hand, but that game is against AFCON champions Côte d’Ivoire, who have now qualified.
The problem for them is, if they fail to win against the Ivorians, they will need to get a result on the final day in Monrovia, where the game against Sierra Leone will be played. The fact it is a neutral venue will count in their favour but the Sierra Leoneans will be heavily motivated in a game that will be winner-takes-all.
A draw would be enough for Zambia that day, but things could get very tense if they go behind.
What they must do: Zambia must ensure that they beat Côte d’Ivoire to avoid any final day drama. Leaving it late to secure qualification could lead to heartbreak, against a team that will come guns blazing to take them out.
They must take advantage of the fact their opponents this week do not have anything to play for and could experiment, although the Ivorians will be wary of losing their second consecutive qualifying game after their defeat to Sierra Leone.
● Bet on Zambia to win against Côte d’Ivoire
@5.20
● South Africa
South Africa were the standout team of the last AFCON tournament after an incredible run to the semi final where they lost on penalties to Nigeria. Their team, made up of predominantly home based players, delivered arguably the most entertaining football at the tournament and neutrals waxed lyrical about them.
Naturally, expectations grew for what they would go on to do after the tournament, but things have not exactly gone to plan.
South Africa have been walking a tightrope during these qualifiers. In their first game, they needed a 95th minute equaliser to escape defeat at home against Uganda. In their next game, they needed a 95th minute winner to overcome South Sudan.
Ironically, they have looked most comfortable in the home game against the team that could still snatch qualification from their hands, Congo. They won 5-0 but would then go on to get only a draw in the reverse fixture.
That 5-0 victory gives them the head-to-head advantage but they are still only 4 points clear. If they lose their next game away to Uganda, who have won their other three games since the draw in Johannesburg, things will get tricky. A Congo win in Juba, to go with that result, would take things to the final day.
What they must do: The task before South Africa is quite straightforward as their destiny is in their hands and they have a four point cushion. Whatever happens in Kampala, they must win their final game at home to South Sudan. There is simply no excuse to bottle that game. Win and it is done and dusted. But their form in these qualifiers suggests it is anything but straightforward.
● South Africa
South Africa were the standout team of the last AFCON tournament after an incredible run to the semi final where they lost on penalties to Nigeria. Their team, made up of predominantly home based players, delivered arguably the most entertaining football at the tournament and neutrals waxed lyrical about them.
Naturally, expectations grew for what they would go on to do after the tournament, but things have not exactly gone to plan.
South Africa have been walking a tightrope during these qualifiers. In their first game, they needed a 95th minute equaliser to escape defeat at home against Uganda. In their next game, they needed a 95th minute winner to overcome South Sudan.
Ironically, they have looked most comfortable in the home game against the team that could still snatch qualification from their hands, Congo. They won 5-0 but would then go on to get only a draw in the reverse fixture.
That 5-0 victory gives them the head-to-head advantage but they are still only 4 points clear. If they lose their next game away to Uganda, who have won their other three games since the draw in Johannesburg, things will get tricky. A Congo win in Juba, to go with that result, would take things to the final day.
What they must do: The task before South Africa is quite straightforward as their destiny is in their hands and they have a four point cushion. Whatever happens in Kampala, they must win their final game at home to South Sudan. There is simply no excuse to bottle that game. Win and it is done and dusted. But their form in these qualifiers suggests it is anything but straightforward.
● Bet on Uganda to win against South Africa
@3.00
● Bet on Congo to win against South Sudan
@1.93
● Mali
Mali have become one of the continent’s most consistent teams over the past decade, but there is still a feeling that they have underachieved. Considering the kind of football they have served up and how they have looked against the heavyweights, it is inexcusable that they have not made an AFCON semi final since 2013.
Their defeat to Côte d’Ivoire in the quarter finals at the last AFCON tournament confounded many, as they had comfortably been the better side, and were a goal and a man up. That they didn’t make it to the final of the tournament, after their performances all-tournament, is still a mystery. It is why Éric Chelle was ultimately dismissed and former Gambian coach, Tom Saintfiet, was appointed in his place.
So far, they look on course to qualify, tied on 8 points with Mozambique and 4 points clear of 3rd-placed Guinea-Bissau. The problem is, they go away to Mozambique next, with Guinea Bissau facing winless Eswatini.
Should Mali, who have looked unimpressive during these qualifiers, lose to their direct rivals for top spot, the group could be blown open. A Guinea Bissau win in Mbombela, where the other game will be played, will mean drama on the final day when they host Mozambique.
Mali themselves will host Eswatini on the final day but it will not be a walk in the park. The team just took points off Mozambique last time out.
What they must do: Beat Eswatini. There is simply no excuse to not win that game. No matter what happens in Mozambique, a win against Eswatini at home guarantees qualification. Against the worst team in the group – regardless of their exploits in Maputo – Mali must win. It should be comfortable. But with football, you just never know.
● Mali
Mali have become one of the continent’s most consistent teams over the past decade, but there is still a feeling that they have underachieved. Considering the kind of football they have served up and how they have looked against the heavyweights, it is inexcusable that they have not made an AFCON semi final since 2013.
Their defeat to Côte d’Ivoire in the quarter finals at the last AFCON tournament confounded many, as they had comfortably been the better side, and were a goal and a man up. That they didn’t make it to the final of the tournament, after their performances all-tournament, is still a mystery. It is why Éric Chelle was ultimately dismissed and former Gambian coach, Tom Saintfiet, was appointed in his place.
So far, they look on course to qualify, tied on 8 points with Mozambique and 4 points clear of 3rd-placed Guinea-Bissau. The problem is, they go away to Mozambique next, with Guinea Bissau facing winless Eswatini.
Should Mali, who have looked unimpressive during these qualifiers, lose to their direct rivals for top spot, the group could be blown open. A Guinea Bissau win in Mbombela, where the other game will be played, will mean drama on the final day when they host Mozambique.
Mali themselves will host Eswatini on the final day but it will not be a walk in the park. The team just took points off Mozambique last time out.
What they must do: Beat Eswatini. There is simply no excuse to not win that game. No matter what happens in Mozambique, a win against Eswatini at home guarantees qualification. Against the worst team in the group – regardless of their exploits in Maputo – Mali must win. It should be comfortable. But with football, you just never know.
● Bet on a draw between Mozambique and Mali
@2.97
● Bet on Guinea Bissau to win against Eswatini
@1.85
● Guinea
The Syli National are AFCON regulars and former finalists, a team capable of a run to the AFCON final if the stars align. They have reached five quarter finals since 2004, with the latest coming in the last tournament.
The problem is, like Mali, they seem to hit a ceiling no matter how good they look. Having avoided the heavyweights, they blew their lead against DR Congo and found themselves eliminated with the semi finals in their sights. Now, grouped with the same team, things are not looking smooth.
They would have already qualified if they didn’t lose at home to nearest rivals Tanzania, who are just two points behind.
The problem for Guinea is that their next game is against already qualified DR Congo, who seem to have them fully figured out. Should they lose or draw and Tanzania win against bottom team Ethiopia, they will be third on the table going into the final day.
That final game will be an away match against that rival in Dar es Salaam, one where a draw wouldn’t be good enough to save them. Tanzania will be highly motivated that day, in front of their fans, eager to make back-to-back AFCON tournaments for the first time.
What they must do: Simply put, beat DR Congo. Anything other than a win against DR Congo will put them in trouble. They do not want to go into the final day in third place and needing a win against Tanzania in Dar es Salaam. It is a risk they must absolutely avoid.
● Guinea
The Syli National are AFCON regulars and former finalists, a team capable of a run to the AFCON final if the stars align. They have reached five quarter finals since 2004, with the latest coming in the last tournament.
The problem is, like Mali, they seem to hit a ceiling no matter how good they look. Having avoided the heavyweights, they blew their lead against DR Congo and found themselves eliminated with the semi finals in their sights. Now, grouped with the same team, things are not looking smooth.
They would have already qualified if they didn’t lose at home to nearest rivals Tanzania, who are just two points behind.
The problem for Guinea is that their next game is against already qualified DR Congo, who seem to have them fully figured out. Should they lose or draw and Tanzania win against bottom team Ethiopia, they will be third on the table going into the final day.
That final game will be an away match against that rival in Dar es Salaam, one where a draw wouldn’t be good enough to save them. Tanzania will be highly motivated that day, in front of their fans, eager to make back-to-back AFCON tournaments for the first time.
What they must do: Simply put, beat DR Congo. Anything other than a win against DR Congo will put them in trouble. They do not want to go into the final day in third place and needing a win against Tanzania in Dar es Salaam. It is a risk they must absolutely avoid.
● Bet on a draw between Guinea and DR Congo
@2.97
● Bet on Tanzania to win against Ethiopia
@2.10
So much drama is ahead of us, and you do not want to miss out! There is value and an opportunity to cash out big this international break.
Get on BetKing, the best betting site in Nigeria with the best betting app and the best odds, and book a bet! If you don’t already have an account, Sign Up now! There’s no better time than now to explore these AFCON qualifiers.
So much drama is ahead of us, and you do not want to miss out! There is value and an opportunity to cash out big this international break.
Get on BetKing, the best betting site in Nigeria with the best betting app and the best odds, and book a bet! If you don’t already have an account, Sign Up now! There’s no better time than now to explore these AFCON qualifiers.