One month into the 2026/27 season, the biggest NBA surprises are a Warriors team that started 0-3 and has won eight straight, and for this, yours truly has to eat a humble pie. I was so dismissive of their title credentials that in my pre-season preview, I gave them just two sentences. Elsewhere, Paul George is looking like Pacers PG13 with the Celtics and then there’s Luka Dončić’s historic start for the Lakers. Meanwhile, the Heat, Magic and Pacers have fallen well short of what most NBA predictions promised in October.
Most people tipped the Lakers, Warriors and Blazers to disappoint and the Pacers and Jazz to leap. It has not gone to plan. Here is what the first month has taught us, and how you can make better NBA predictions from these lessons.
1. Yaxel Lendeborg Has Turned the Warriors Into Contenders
NBA.com’s preseason power rankings had Golden State 24th. Then a 24-year-old rookie arrived. Yaxel Lendeborg, the No. 11 pick, is averaging 21.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists while shooting 44.3% from three. After losing their first 3 games to start the season, the Warriors won eight straight, their first run that long since 2022. That run was eventually snapped by the Rockets. But, for a team expecting Jimmy Butler to return and with some freed up wage bill given the soon-to-be official departure of Kristaps Porzingis, there’s still a lot this team can do to get better. My wild prediction is that they’ll get Anthony Davis.
Stephen Curry is thriving beside him, averaging 33.8 points over a seven-game stretch, and called Lendeborg “the full package.” Lendeborg is now the Rookie of the Year favourite and you can get that at the best odds on BetKing.
2. Nikola Jokić Is Declining, but He Is Still Elite
Nikola Jokić is not finished, but his numbers are the lowest of his Denver prime. Through nine games he is averaging 23.1 points, 10.8 rebounds and 9.1 assists, down from 27.7, 12.9 and 10.7 last season, and he still leads the league in assists. The problem is his shot: 22.5% from three, down from 38.0% last year.
The slide began after a month-long knee injury last season. He shot 43.5% from three before it and 31.9% over the next 33 games. Some members of the online betting community, including me, wonder whether the “Apex Joker” is gone, and Denver are 6-4 with just one win over a team above .500. For us bettors, his assist lines look safer than his scoring props.
3. Paul George Is Playing Like an All-Star for the Celtics
Boston traded Jaylen Brown for Paul George, and one ESPN writer called the return “mighty underwhelming.” Instead, the Celtics are 10-2 and top the East.
George, 36, opened with 38 points and was averaging 22.3 points on 47.0% shooting before Tuesday, when he scored 36 with six threes against Brown’s Sixers. That is a big jump from the 17.3 points he averaged in Philadelphia last season. Credit has to go to the Celtics management and coaching staff who have handled him brilliantly. He’s not played in both games in a back-to-back given his age and injury history, and has also fit in seamlessly alongside Jayson Tatum. Right now, it’s hard to have him off the All-Star team, which is a testament to his brilliance so far.
4. Luka Dončić Is Carrying the Lakers to the Top of the West
Lots of people picked the Lakers as the team most likely to disappoint. And who can blame them? LeBron James had gone and a lot was made about their all-white big three which, historically, had not worked in the NBA. What we’ve seen, however, is something unexpected. They are 11-2, top of the West and on a seven-game winning streak.
Luka Dončić averaged 40.1 points through a nine-game stretch, a mark only Wilt Chamberlain has matched, and scored 53 against Portland. The Lakers’ offensive rating with him on the floor is 130.9, which would be an NBA record. Without him it is 99.1, a massive drop. Needless to say, for anyone making NBA basketball predictions on the MVP, Dončić is now the man to beat.
5. Giannis and the Heat Are Struggling Badly
Miami added Giannis Antetokounmpo to climb out of the play-in, then started 0-4, their worst start since 2007-08. Giannis is averaging 27.7 points, but the Heat own the league’s worst shooting defence and were giving up 16.4 threes per game early on. They have won five of seven since, but those wins came against bottom-dwellers and the offence is close to bottom-10 as well. At 5-6, they are a team to handle carefully on the spread.
6. The Magic and Pacers Are Hurt, and It Shows
The Pacers and Magic topped a lot of people’s list of likely surprise teams. They are 4-8 and 4-7, respectively.
Injuries explain most of it for both teams. Tyrese Haliburton strained his hamstring in his early days back from Achilles surgery, and Ivica Zubac has missed time with an ankle sprain. Orlando (4-7) have been without Paolo Banchero, with Jalen Suggs also hurt, and most people predict this might be a team about to be broken up seeing as they’ve had this same issue for the past three seasons. Both could be buy-low spots once their stars return, but patience is the play until then.
7. An Insane Rookie Class Is Rewriting the Record Books
Lots of respected NBA insiders call it a “historic” rookie class, and the first month backs that up. Six first-year players are averaging at least 15 points, and the Rookie of the Year race is wide open, though Warriors’ Yaxel Lendeborg is leading the race.
Darius Acuff Jr., the No. 6 pick, leads the class with 25.9 points and 7.4 assists. He was the first player in NBA history with 200 points and 50 assists through eight games. The catch is that Sacramento are 1-10, and he takes more than 23 shots a night, though he has shot 45/39/89 over his last seven games.
Cameron Boozer, the No. 3 pick, is averaging 16.2 points, 9.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists for a 7-4 Grizzlies side. At 19, he became the third-youngest player in NBA history with a 25-point, 10-rebound, five-assist game.
Caleb Wilson leads rookies in steals (1.9) while scoring 19.3 points for Chicago. No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa is at 16.7 points and 6.1 rebounds despite an ankle injury that delayed his debut, and No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson is at 15.7 points and 3.8 assists for Utah. Aday Mara is playing about 20 minutes off the bench for Oklahoma City, and Brayden Burries has started for Milwaukee.
Pedigree helps explain it. Four of last season’s five consensus first-team All-Americans, Acuff, Boozer, Dybantsa and Lendeborg, are rookies in this class, and Dybantsa was the NCAA scoring champion at BYU. Lendeborg, a 24-year-old out of Michigan, tops the NBA’s Kia Rookie Ladder, while Mara, another Michigan product, is helping Oklahoma City survive its injuries.
Rookie | Team | Pick | Season stats | ROY odds |
Yaxel Lendeborg | Warriors | No. 11 | 21.4 pts, 7.2 reb, 4.0 ast | 2.60 |
Cameron Boozer | Grizzlies | No. 3 | 16.2 pts, 9.7 reb, 5.5 ast | 3.60 |
Darius Acuff Jr. | Kings | No. 6 | 25.9 pts, 7.4 ast | 4.50 |
AJ Dybantsa | Wizards | No. 1 | 16.7 pts, 6.1 reb | 9.00 |
Caleb Wilson | Bulls | No. 4 | 19.3 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.9 stl | 13.00 |
Darryn Peterson | Jazz | No. 2 | 15.7 pts, 4.0 reb, 3.8 ast | 18.00 |
Efficiency is the separator. Lendeborg shoots 52.3% overall with the best true shooting among rookies who play 20-plus minutes. Boozer is at 36.4% and Acuff began the year near 40%. Voters also tend to reward winning, which helps the Warriors rookie and hurts Acuff on a 1-10 team. Four of the six play for losing sides: Sacramento, Chicago, Utah and Washington.
Shot volume is the safest thing to bet on with rookies, and nobody has more of it than Acuff. Rookies are volatile, though. Dybantsa and Wilson are priced as long shots despite strong numbers, while Peterson sits at 18.00 after a slower start. If a hot streak lands, those prices will shorten fast. For now, however, it seems like Yaxel is the pick among a super talented crop.
8. The Timberwolves Are 5-2 Without Anthony Edwards
Edwards had knee surgery and could miss up to two months, yet Minnesota are 8-3 and 5-2 without him, with their odds of winning the title actually improving in his absence. Ayo Dosunmu is averaging 17.3 points on 42.5% from three since Edwards went out, and LaMelo Ball has shot 62/55/87 in the fourth quarter. If a team is playing this well with its MVP-calibre star player, then scary times lie ahead of us.
What to Watch Next: NBA Fixtures and Predictions
The NBA schedule has a belter on Friday. The Warriors (eight straight wins) visit the Spurs (nine) in NBA Cup play at 9:30 PM ET, which is 3:30 AM Saturday in Nigeria. Victor Wembanyama has put up 151 points, 56 rebounds and 20 blocks over his last four games, so it is a stern test for Curry and Lendeborg.
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