World Cup
2026 FIFA World Cup: 5 Things We Learned From A Wild Matchday 1
by Chike Nwoye
18 Jun 2026
Well, that was a pretty exciting opening round of matches. A Lionel Messi hat-trick, Mbappe grabbing a brace, Haaland responding immediately, an Arsenal player inspiring a corner-kick goal… we had a bit of everything. Here’s a look at what we learned from Matchday One of the ongoing 2026 FIFA World Cup and what those lessons could mean for your bet predictions over the next few weeks.
Well, that was a pretty exciting opening round of matches. A Lionel Messi hat-trick, Mbappe grabbing a brace, Haaland responding immediately, an Arsenal player inspiring a corner-kick goal… we had a bit of everything. Here’s a look at what we learned from Matchday One of the ongoing 2026 FIFA World Cup and what those lessons could mean for your bet predictions over the next few weeks.
1. The Big Players Are Here to Show Up...Well, Mostly
The World Cup always brings together the biggest stars in football, and it’s been great to see so many of them make an immediate impact. Vinícius Jr. scored Brazil’s goal in their draw with Morocco, while Folarin Balogun scored twice for the United States. (I know Folarin is not exactly a ‘big player’ but try telling that to the Americans and let me know how it goes).
Germany’s 7-1 thrashing of Curaçao saw Kai Havertz (2) and Jamal Musiala get on the scoresheet, with Florian Wirtz also contributing an assist. Sweden’s win over Tunisia featured goals from both Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres. But the standout day was undoubtedly June 16th.
In the early kickoff of the day, France captain Kylian Mbappé scored twice in a 3-1 victory over Senegal, taking his World Cup tally to 14 goals in just 15 appearances. An hour later, World Cup debutant Erling Haaland announced himself with a first-half brace as Norway defeated Iraq. Then, just when it seemed the day couldn’t get any better, Lionel Messi netted the first World Cup hat-trick of his career as Argentina beat Algeria 3-0. The treble took him level with Miroslav Klose on 16 World Cup goals, the joint-highest tally in tournament history.
2018 Golden Boot winner Harry Kane joined the party with a brace against Croatia taking his tally to 10 World Cup goals, while Bayern teammate Luis Diaz scored and assisted in Colombia’s 3-1 win over Uzbekistan.
There’s always the exception to the ‘rule’, and one big player who didn’t get on the scoresheet, however, is Cristiano Ronaldo. The football icon was quiet in the draw against DR Congo and has now gone 10 straight major international tournament games without a goal - a run that stretches back to the 2022 World Cup. You know things are bad when even Bruno Fernandes can’t assist you. If you’re looking to Ronaldo for goals in this tournament, I'd like to offer you some advice from Nigerian poet, DJ Stramborella… Efrebor (U go wound o!)
Beyond the excitement for football fans, performances like these are also music to the ears of “Anytime Scorer” lovers in our online betting community, with players of this quality often providing excellent value in the betting markets. I say we lean further on them on Matchday 2.
Betting Tips:
- Lionel Messi Anytime Scorer vs. Austria @1.89
- Vinicius Jr. Anytime Scorer vs. Haiti @1.73
- Kylian Mbappe Anytime Scorer vs. Iraq @1.43
- Erling Haaland Anytime Scorer vs. Senegal @1.97
- Kai Havertz Anytime Scorer vs. Cote d’Ivoire @2.25
- Harry Kane Anytime Scorer vs. Ghana @1.65
2. Maybe Stay Away From CAF Teams…
This World Cup features 10 African teams - double the number that competed in Qatar 2022 - and while that’s a huge moment for the continent, the excitement faded quickly after the opening round of matches.
Across the first 10 games involving CAF nations, only two ended in victory: Côte d’Ivoire’s 1-0 win over Ecuador and Ghana’s against Panama. More worrying is that those 10 matches produced just six goals and three clean sheets from African sides. South Africa were beaten by Mexico in the tournament opener after a nightmare display from Yaya Sithole, Algeria suffered a 3-0 loss to Argentina, while reigning AFCON champions Senegal came up short against France. The heaviest defeat belonged to Tunisia, who were hammered 5-1 by Sweden, a result that cost Head Coach Sabri Lamouchi his job less than 12 hours later.
It wasn’t all doom and gloom, though. Morocco earned a draw against Brazil in a game many felt they deserved to win, while debutants Cabo Verde held European heavyweights Spain to a scoreless draw despite facing 23 shots. DR Congo, making their return after a 52-year absence, also made history as they scored their first-ever World Cup goal, courtesy of Yoane Wissa, earning them a precious point against Portugal.
Matchday 2 looks even more challenging for CAF teams, with Côte d’Ivoire taking on Germany, Tunisia and new boss Hervé Renard facing Japan, and Ghana’s Black Stars meeting England in Boston. For that reason alone, these are probably games worth approaching with a bit of caution.
Betting Tips:
- Czechia Double Chance: Win or Draw vs. South Africa @1.20
- Germany 1UP vs. Côte d’Ivoire @1.29
- Japan 1UP vs. Tunisia @1.31
- England Win vs. Ghana @1.33
3. Best Futures/Outrights Bets
I know it’s only been one matchday, but we’ve already seen a few early signs that could be worth paying attention to, especially if you’re thinking long-term. With our futures/outright Bets, there’s an opportunity to get ahead of the curve and benefit from some smart picks.
First up is Group K, featuring Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo and Uzbekistan. Most experts understandably tipped Portugal to finish top, but after being held by DR Congo and with Colombia cruising past Uzbekistan, the picture has started to shift. Colombia’s chances of winning the group have received a major boost, even if Portugal are still viewed as slight favourites. Personally, I think Colombia are now in pole position to top the group, and we’ve got the best odds available on that outcome.
Next up is the Golden Boot race, and honestly, this is one of my favourite markets because it rewards a bit of smart thinking. In league competitions, players get the same number of matches to chase goals. Cup tournaments are different. It's not just about how good a player is, but also how far their team goes in the competition.
Yes, this World Cup has already produced braces from Mbappé, Harry Kane, Kai Havertz and Erling Haaland, plus a hat-trick from Lionel Messi. But when assessing the Golden Boot race, we also have to consider which players are likely to play the most games. The strength of their group opponents matters too.
With that in mind, my top two picks are Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane. France are expected to make a deep run in the tournament, which should give Mbappé more opportunities to add to his tally. More importantly, his Matchday 1 brace came against Senegal, arguably the toughest defensive side he’ll face in the group stage. France still have games against Norway and Iraq to come, both of which could present further scoring opportunities.
The same logic applies to Kane. His brace came against a strong Croatia side, and with Ghana and Panama still to come in the group, there's every chance he adds a few more goals before England's expected run into the latter stages of the competition. For me, those extra matches could prove decisive in the race for the Golden Boot and you could get 4x your betting stake if you take the early chance on them.
- Bet on Kylian Mbappe to win the Golden Boot @4.00
- Bet on Kylian Mbappe Over 4.5 Total Goals @1.40
- Bet on Harry Kane to win the Golden Boot @4.25
4. A Big Collapse in the Making?
In recent World Cup tournaments, we’ve almost always had at least one big team suffer a major collapse and fail to make it out of the group stage, and there have usually been warning signs before it happens. The 2006 World Cup feels like the last time we didn’t really have one of those stories.
In 2010, defending champions Italy famously finished bottom of a group that featured Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand, while France also exited in the group stage amid a controversy so bad, it inspired its own Netflix documentary. In 2014, defending champions Spain failed to progress from the group stage, while Italy (again), Portugal and England also suffered the same fate.
In 2018, Germany became the third defending champion in a row to fail to make it out of the group. In 2022, France (2018 winners), ended that streak, but Germany once again fell short of reaching the knockout rounds.
Now, to be fair, the path to the knockout stages is much easier this time around, with third-place teams having a 66.7% chance of progressing. But if there’s one powerhouse that deserves some attention, it’s Spain. Since lifting the trophy in 2010, they’ve won just three World Cup matches. Yes, that’s three wins in three editions. Well, four editions now. They’ve started this campaign with a disappointing draw against debutants Cape Verde, and things could become complicated with games against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay still to come. Of course, they have enough individual quality to make this prediction look silly by next week; but then again, so did the other big teams that eventually collapsed.
5. The Over/Under Market is Tricky
On the surface, this looks like a tournament full of goals. After all, the draw between Spain and Cape Verde is the only goalless match we've seen so far. But when you dig a little deeper, it feels like the competition is still warming up.
Yes, the 3.1 goals per game average puts this tournament on pace for the highest-scoring World Cup in 68 years. But further analysis shows the goals are concentrated rather than spread out. Think of Group E which has produced 9 goals. Germany vs Curacao gave us 8, but Cote d’Ivoire vs Ecuador only managed one. In Group L, England vs Croatia had 6 goals but Ghana’s win over Panama only had one goal.
Let’s look deeper. A total of 20 of the 24 Matchday 1 games produced Over 1.5 Goals, which works out to an impressive 83.3%. Sounds great, right? However, the numbers tell a different story when you move up to Over 2.5 Goals. Only 12 of the 24 matches cleared that line, exactly 50%. That's basically a coin flip.
For bettors searching for the best world cup betting tips, what this tells us is that Over 1.5 Goals remains the safest market, particularly during the group stage. Over 2.5 Goals can still offer excellent value, but you'll need to be more selective and pick your spots carefully.
So far, Group B (Switzerland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canada and Qatar), Group C (Brazil, Morocco, Scotland and Haiti), and Group H (Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Spain and Cape Verde) have been the lowest-scoring groups, producing 4, 3 and 2 goals respectively. I expect those numbers to improve on Matchday 2, but if you're specifically targeting high-scoring games, I'd avoid matches from those groups for the time being.
1. The Big Players Are Here to Show Up...Well, Mostly
The World Cup always brings together the biggest stars in football, and it’s been great to see so many of them make an immediate impact. Vinícius Jr. scored Brazil’s goal in their draw with Morocco, while Folarin Balogun scored twice for the United States. (I know Folarin is not exactly a ‘big player’ but try telling that to the Americans and let me know how it goes).
Germany’s 7-1 thrashing of Curaçao saw Kai Havertz (2) and Jamal Musiala get on the scoresheet, with Florian Wirtz also contributing an assist. Sweden’s win over Tunisia featured goals from both Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres. But the standout day was undoubtedly June 16th.
In the early kickoff of the day, France captain Kylian Mbappé scored twice in a 3-1 victory over Senegal, taking his World Cup tally to 14 goals in just 15 appearances. An hour later, World Cup debutant Erling Haaland announced himself with a first-half brace as Norway defeated Iraq. Then, just when it seemed the day couldn’t get any better, Lionel Messi netted the first World Cup hat-trick of his career as Argentina beat Algeria 3-0. The treble took him level with Miroslav Klose on 16 World Cup goals, the joint-highest tally in tournament history.
2018 Golden Boot winner Harry Kane joined the party with a brace against Croatia taking his tally to 10 World Cup goals, while Bayern teammate Luis Diaz scored and assisted in Colombia’s 3-1 win over Uzbekistan.
There’s always the exception to the ‘rule’, and one big player who didn’t get on the scoresheet, however, is Cristiano Ronaldo. The football icon was quiet in the draw against DR Congo and has now gone 10 straight major international tournament games without a goal - a run that stretches back to the 2022 World Cup. You know things are bad when even Bruno Fernandes can’t assist you. If you’re looking to Ronaldo for goals in this tournament, I'd like to offer you some advice from Nigerian poet, DJ Stramborella… Efrebor (U go wound o!)
Beyond the excitement for football fans, performances like these are also music to the ears of “Anytime Scorer” lovers in our online betting community, with players of this quality often providing excellent value in the betting markets. I say we lean further on them on Matchday 2.
Betting Tips:
- Lionel Messi Anytime Scorer vs. Austria @1.89
- Vinicius Jr. Anytime Scorer vs. Haiti @1.73
- Kylian Mbappe Anytime Scorer vs. Iraq @1.43
- Erling Haaland Anytime Scorer vs. Senegal @1.97
- Kai Havertz Anytime Scorer vs. Cote d’Ivoire @2.25
- Harry Kane Anytime Scorer vs. Ghana @1.65
2. Maybe Stay Away From CAF Teams…
This World Cup features 10 African teams - double the number that competed in Qatar 2022 - and while that’s a huge moment for the continent, the excitement faded quickly after the opening round of matches.
Across the first 10 games involving CAF nations, only two ended in victory: Côte d’Ivoire’s 1-0 win over Ecuador and Ghana’s against Panama. More worrying is that those 10 matches produced just six goals and three clean sheets from African sides. South Africa were beaten by Mexico in the tournament opener after a nightmare display from Yaya Sithole, Algeria suffered a 3-0 loss to Argentina, while reigning AFCON champions Senegal came up short against France. The heaviest defeat belonged to Tunisia, who were hammered 5-1 by Sweden, a result that cost Head Coach Sabri Lamouchi his job less than 12 hours later.
It wasn’t all doom and gloom, though. Morocco earned a draw against Brazil in a game many felt they deserved to win, while debutants Cabo Verde held European heavyweights Spain to a scoreless draw despite facing 23 shots. DR Congo, making their return after a 52-year absence, also made history as they scored their first-ever World Cup goal, courtesy of Yoane Wissa, earning them a precious point against Portugal.
Matchday 2 looks even more challenging for CAF teams, with Côte d’Ivoire taking on Germany, Tunisia and new boss Hervé Renard facing Japan, and Ghana’s Black Stars meeting England in Boston. For that reason alone, these are probably games worth approaching with a bit of caution.
Betting Tips:
- Czechia Double Chance: Win or Draw vs. South Africa @1.20
- Germany 1UP vs. Côte d’Ivoire @1.29
- Japan 1UP vs. Tunisia @1.31
- England Win vs. Ghana @1.33
3. Best Futures/Outrights Bets
I know it’s only been one matchday, but we’ve already seen a few early signs that could be worth paying attention to, especially if you’re thinking long-term. With our futures/outright Bets, there’s an opportunity to get ahead of the curve and benefit from some smart picks.
First up is Group K, featuring Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo and Uzbekistan. Most experts understandably tipped Portugal to finish top, but after being held by DR Congo and with Colombia cruising past Uzbekistan, the picture has started to shift. Colombia’s chances of winning the group have received a major boost, even if Portugal are still viewed as slight favourites. Personally, I think Colombia are now in pole position to top the group, and we’ve got the best odds available on that outcome.
Next up is the Golden Boot race, and honestly, this is one of my favourite markets because it rewards a bit of smart thinking. In league competitions, players get the same number of matches to chase goals. Cup tournaments are different. It's not just about how good a player is, but also how far their team goes in the competition.
Yes, this World Cup has already produced braces from Mbappé, Harry Kane, Kai Havertz and Erling Haaland, plus a hat-trick from Lionel Messi. But when assessing the Golden Boot race, we also have to consider which players are likely to play the most games. The strength of their group opponents matters too.
With that in mind, my top two picks are Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane. France are expected to make a deep run in the tournament, which should give Mbappé more opportunities to add to his tally. More importantly, his Matchday 1 brace came against Senegal, arguably the toughest defensive side he’ll face in the group stage. France still have games against Norway and Iraq to come, both of which could present further scoring opportunities.
The same logic applies to Kane. His brace came against a strong Croatia side, and with Ghana and Panama still to come in the group, there's every chance he adds a few more goals before England's expected run into the latter stages of the competition. For me, those extra matches could prove decisive in the race for the Golden Boot and you could get 4x your betting stake if you take the early chance on them.
- Bet on Kylian Mbappe to win the Golden Boot @4.00
- Bet on Kylian Mbappe Over 4.5 Total Goals @1.40
- Bet on Harry Kane to win the Golden Boot @4.25
4. A Big Collapse in the Making?
In recent World Cup tournaments, we’ve almost always had at least one big team suffer a major collapse and fail to make it out of the group stage, and there have usually been warning signs before it happens. The 2006 World Cup feels like the last time we didn’t really have one of those stories.
In 2010, defending champions Italy famously finished bottom of a group that featured Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand, while France also exited in the group stage amid a controversy so bad, it inspired its own Netflix documentary. In 2014, defending champions Spain failed to progress from the group stage, while Italy (again), Portugal and England also suffered the same fate.
In 2018, Germany became the third defending champion in a row to fail to make it out of the group. In 2022, France (2018 winners), ended that streak, but Germany once again fell short of reaching the knockout rounds.
Now, to be fair, the path to the knockout stages is much easier this time around, with third-place teams having a 66.7% chance of progressing. But if there’s one powerhouse that deserves some attention, it’s Spain. Since lifting the trophy in 2010, they’ve won just three World Cup matches. Yes, that’s three wins in three editions. Well, four editions now. They’ve started this campaign with a disappointing draw against debutants Cape Verde, and things could become complicated with games against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay still to come. Of course, they have enough individual quality to make this prediction look silly by next week; but then again, so did the other big teams that eventually collapsed.
5. The Over/Under Market is Tricky
On the surface, this looks like a tournament full of goals. After all, the draw between Spain and Cape Verde is the only goalless match we've seen so far. But when you dig a little deeper, it feels like the competition is still warming up.
Yes, the 3.1 goals per game average puts this tournament on pace for the highest-scoring World Cup in 68 years. But further analysis shows the goals are concentrated rather than spread out. Think of Group E which has produced 9 goals. Germany vs Curacao gave us 8, but Cote d’Ivoire vs Ecuador only managed one. In Group L, England vs Croatia had 6 goals but Ghana’s win over Panama only had one goal.
Let’s look deeper. A total of 20 of the 24 Matchday 1 games produced Over 1.5 Goals, which works out to an impressive 83.3%. Sounds great, right? However, the numbers tell a different story when you move up to Over 2.5 Goals. Only 12 of the 24 matches cleared that line, exactly 50%. That's basically a coin flip.
For bettors searching for the best world cup betting tips, what this tells us is that Over 1.5 Goals remains the safest market, particularly during the group stage. Over 2.5 Goals can still offer excellent value, but you'll need to be more selective and pick your spots carefully.
So far, Group B (Switzerland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canada and Qatar), Group C (Brazil, Morocco, Scotland and Haiti), and Group H (Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Spain and Cape Verde) have been the lowest-scoring groups, producing 4, 3 and 2 goals respectively. I expect those numbers to improve on Matchday 2, but if you're specifically targeting high-scoring games, I'd avoid matches from those groups for the time being.