Betting Tips
2025 NBA Finals Betting Tips: Expert Basketball Predictions Are Here!
by Chike Nwoye
4 Jun 2025
Two small-market teams. Two teams making their second appearance in the final. Two teams hoping to win their first ever championship. Two teams tied to Paul George, but we’ll get to that later. It’s the NBA finals, and it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder versus the Indiana Pacers.
OKC finished the season with a stellar 68-14 record, while the Pacers finished at 50-32; an 18-win gap between both teams. That kind of difference is rare at this stage and hasn’t been seen in the Finals since 1981, when the 62-20 Celtics took down the 40-42 Rockets.
Historically, the team with the better regular season record has come out on top 69% of the time, while the underdog with fewer wins has only pulled it off 25% of the time (with 3 Finals featuring teams with identical records).
So can you see why the online betting community is leaning towards OKC winning it all despite a Game 1 loss? No? Let’s break it down further.
Two small-market teams. Two teams making their second appearance in the final. Two teams hoping to win their first ever championship. Two teams tied to Paul George, but we’ll get to that later. It’s the NBA finals, and it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder versus the Indiana Pacers.
OKC finished the season with a stellar 68-14 record, while the Pacers finished at 50-32; an 18-win gap between both teams. That kind of difference is rare at this stage and hasn’t been seen in the Finals since 1981, when the 62-20 Celtics took down the 40-42 Rockets.
Historically, the team with the better regular season record has come out on top 69% of the time, while the underdog with fewer wins has only pulled it off 25% of the time (with 3 Finals featuring teams with identical records).
So can you see why the online betting community is leaning towards OKC winning it all despite a Game 1 loss? No? Let’s break it down further.
Road To The Finals
The beauty of this match-up is how these finalists proved that there are different paths to a championship. Here’s what I mean…
Oklahoma City Thunder Bullies Their Way Through The West
“Dominance” has been OKC’s theme all season. You know how Jay-Z once said, “finish your breakfast”, a call to stay locked in and not mess with opportunities that lead to success? Well, the Thunder didn’t just eat, they cleared the whole plate every morning.
A league-best 68 wins and a franchise-record 15-game win streak says it all. But here’s the wild part: their record against the East. They went 29-1 against the East. Let me say that again — they had just one loss to the entire Eastern Conference.
That 96.7% win rate is the best by a Western team against the East. It’s not just impressive, it’s unheard of.
They were a problem everywhere — no matter the court, city, or time zone. But if there was one place they really made teams suffer, it was in Oklahoma.
That home-court magic rolled into the playoffs too. They’re 8-1 at home in the postseason, and in those 8 wins, they won by margins of 51, 19, 43, 7, 32, 36, 15, and 30.
That sole loss came against Denver in Game 1 where they led by 9 with three minutes left before losing by 2. So across 9 home games, they’re… +231. I have a word for that… Dominance.
Indiana Pacers Start Slow But Finish Strong
Indiana’s season kicked off rough — like, really rough. After making it to the conference finals last year, everyone expected big things this year.
However, starting 10-15 and sitting 21st in the league had people worried. Their offense was ranked 19th during that period, and Haliburton was putting up 17.5 points and 8.4 assists with a -2.5 +/-.
Then, around mid-December, they figured things out. They finished with a 40-17 run (4th best in the league) and climbed up to 7th in offensive rating. Even Haliburton got better, bumping his averages to 19.2 points, 9.6 assists, and a +5.9 +/-.
However, they saved their best for the playoffs. Indy took care of Giannis and the Bucks pretty easily, winning 4-1, before shocking everyone by stealing the first two games of the conference semi-final in Cleveland against the Cavs who had the best Eastern record and second-best overall.
Cleveland fought back in Game 3, but the damage was done. The Pacers closed out the series 4-1 in one of the biggest upsets in this year’s playoff.
The most memorable moment came in Game 1 against the Knicks. They were down by 17 in the fourth quarter, and down 9 points with a minute left — a deficit no team had ever overcome in 1,414 previous games.
Somehow, the Pacers clawed back, thanks to Aaron Nesmith’s barrage of threes and a clutch, game-tying shot from Haliburton to send it to OT — and then they won. It truly was one of the most iconic basketball games I’ve seen in ages.
The Pacers won the series 4-2, leading by double digits in four of those six games. So, while OKC bulldozed their way to the finals, Indiana proved it’s all about how you finish, not necessarily how you start.
Key Players: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Tyrese Haliburton
It’s great to see two guards leading the charge for their teams’ first-ever NBA title and doing it in such different ways. That contrast is part of what makes this Final so fun. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a walking bucket; smooth, crafty, and capable of dropping 30 without even breaking a sweat. On the flip side, Tyrese Haliburton is a throwback pass-first guard thriving in an era that’s all about scoring. Yet somehow, he’s still running the show and making it look easy. So what exactly makes these two stars so special?
SGA: The Scoring Machine
2025 was the year of SGA as he finally grabbed the NBA scoring title with that signature herky-jerky game that keeps defenders off balance and guessing. For the fifth straight year, he led the league in drives per game (20.6), comfortably ahead of guys like Jalen Brunson (17.8) and LaMelo Ball (15.1).
His relentless pressure at the rim pulls defenses apart and opens up looks for both himself and teammates, showing off his underrated playmaking skills. And even though he’s the focal point of OKC’s offense with high usage, his composure is elite, posting one of the lowest turnover rates ever among players with a 30% usage and 29% assist rate. In fact, he ranks first and third all-time in that category for two different seasons.
From deep, he was solid too: 37.5% on nearly six attempts per game, and 35.4% on pull-up threes, just edging out Kyrie Irving. But it’s the mid-range where he really cooked - his efficiency from that area helped him notch three of the 13 most efficient 30-point seasons in the history of basketball.
Haliburton: The New Point God
Haliburton might not have SGA’s burst, but he’s the engine of the Pacers’ up-tempo offense, running the show with elite vision and perfectly timed passes. He led the league with a ridiculous 5.5 assist-to-turnover ratio and became just the second player ever (after Muggsy Bogues) to average 9+ assists with under 2 turnovers per game.
It’s not like he’s playing it safe. Haliburton makes tough passes look easy, mixing flair with control. The Steve Nash comparisons make sense: he’s got the playmaking, the touch, the unselfishness, but with a bit more shot-making ability. He’s a legit three-level scorer with deep range, and even though he averaged 18.6 PPG, that number doesn’t tell the full story of how dangerous he is with the ball. Knicks fans can testify and now, OKC fans too, after his game 1 heroics.
Head Coaches: Mark Daigneault vs. Rick Carlisle
This final is a clash between two coaches at different points in their journeys. Mark Daigneault, just 40, is in his fifth year as an NBA head coach while Rick Carlisle, 65, is in his 24th year running the show and has been coaching for 36 years overall.
Mark Daigneault
Mark Daigneault’s first three seasons in OKC were all losing ones, but things took a sharp turn last year when he coached them to a conference-best 57-25 record and picked up the Coach of the Year award along the way.
Sure, they fell short in the conference semis, but that young squad got its first real taste of success.
No shock then that they’ve taken it up another notch this season, finishing with a franchise-record and league-best 68-14 record.
Even during the rebuilding years, Daigneault’s teams were known for their defense, often making the top 10 in that category and this year, they’ve made it their watchword.
While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is getting all the love for his elite scoring, helping them finish with the third-best offense rating, it's their defense that’s been the real game-changer, ranking #1 in the Regular Season, Playoffs, and even the NBA Cup.
They say “defense wins championships,” and right now, it feels like Daigneault’s just a step away from proving that, if he can coach a better last minute than Game 1's.
Rick Carlisle
Rick Carlisle is one of the best basketball coaches of this era; smart, adaptable, and always able to shape his system around the players he’s got. He had a few near wins with the Pistons and in his first run with the Pacers, especially that year of the infamous Malice at the Palace, which cost one of Indiana’s most talented rosters a legit shot at a ring.
Carlisle then moved to Dallas, and alongside Dirk Nowitzki, delivered the Mavs their one and only championship in what was one of the most memorable playoff runs in recent history.
Replicating that success proved tough though, and even with a strong core of Luka Dončić, Jalen Brunson, Kristaps Porziņģis, and Tim Hardaway Jr. years later, the story remained one of missed chances. And so he stepped down.
Now back in Indiana for a second spell, Carlisle has helped steer a rebuilding Pacers side all the way to just their second-ever NBA Finals. He’ll be hoping to make it 2 in 2.
What To Expect: Offense, Offense, Offense… And OKC’s Defense
One of the biggest things to look out for in this series is the offense; it’s got the potential to be absolutely electric, especially those games in Indiana. In the Playoffs so far, the Pacers and OKC sit 2nd and 3rd in offensive rating, only behind the Cavs (who, by the way, Indiana handled with ease).
The Thunder can blow teams away in a flash - particularly at home - while the Pacers run such a smooth, free-flowing offense that no lead against them ever feels safe. For the neutral fan, this promises to be a treat, even without the usual Finals superstar names we’ve gotten used to in recent years.
That said, don’t sleep on OKC’s defense; it might actually be their most dangerous weapon. They finished the Regular Season and Playoffs with the top-ranked defense and have been straight-up suffocating teams.
In 16 playoff games, they’ve held opponents under 100 points six times. The Pacers? Just once.
Stat-wise, OKC led the league in total deflections, loose balls recovered, charges drawn, contested threes, and were second in total contested shots. They’re young, gritty, and, quite frankly, one of the scariest defenses we’ve seen on a basketball court in a while.
And that defensive edge could be what tilts the series.
Favourite Storyline: Trade Paul George, Make The Finals
Paul George is a future Hall of Famer, but it’s kind of crazy (and sad) that he’s never made it to the NBA Finals. And yet, one of the coolest subplots in this year’s Finals is how trading him set both these teams on the path to glory.
Drafted 10th overall by the Pacers in 2010, Paul George quickly became their main guy, leading Indiana to back-to-back Eastern Conference Finals in 2013 and 2014, winning Most Improved Player in 2013, making four All-Star teams, and landing on the All-NBA Third Team three times.
But by 2017, he’d had enough of all the near-misses - remember, this was peak LeBron-in-the-East era - and asked to leave. He was sent to OKC to join forces with Russell Westbrook, and on paper, that duo looked dangerous. Emphasis on “looked”. But we’ll come back to that.
In return, the Pacers got Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis. Fast forward to 2022, and Sabonis gets flipped mid-season to the Kings for a package that included a young guard named Tyrese Haliburton. You know the rest. It’s 2025, and Halliburton is one of the coldest floor generals in the game, with a knack for hitting big-time shots from deep.
Meanwhile, in OKC, the George-Westbrook experiment fizzled out, and when Free Agent and reigning finals MVP Kawhi Leonard made it clear in 2019 that he’d only sign with the Clippers if they got Paul George, they bent over backwards to make it happen.
As a result? The Thunder walked away with Danilo Gallinari and a billion first round picks.
One of those picks turned into Jalen Williams, this season’s breakout star who made the All-Star team, All-NBA, and All-Defensive teams. But the real gem of that trade was a relatively unknown young, silky guard named Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Six years later, SGA has blossomed into a full-blown superstar, just wrapped up an MVP season, led the league in scoring, and carried OKC to a franchise-record 68 wins.
Moral of the story? NBA teams trying to build a contender should consider (acquiring and) trading away Paul George. You’re welcome, Philly.
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Road To The Finals
The beauty of this match-up is how these finalists proved that there are different paths to a championship. Here’s what I mean…
Oklahoma City Thunder Bullies Their Way Through The West
“Dominance” has been OKC’s theme all season. You know how Jay-Z once said, “finish your breakfast”, a call to stay locked in and not mess with opportunities that lead to success? Well, the Thunder didn’t just eat, they cleared the whole plate every morning.
A league-best 68 wins and a franchise-record 15-game win streak says it all. But here’s the wild part: their record against the East. They went 29-1 against the East. Let me say that again — they had just one loss to the entire Eastern Conference.
That 96.7% win rate is the best by a Western team against the East. It’s not just impressive, it’s unheard of.
They were a problem everywhere — no matter the court, city, or time zone. But if there was one place they really made teams suffer, it was in Oklahoma.
That home-court magic rolled into the playoffs too. They’re 8-1 at home in the postseason, and in those 8 wins, they won by margins of 51, 19, 43, 7, 32, 36, 15, and 30.
That sole loss came against Denver in Game 1 where they led by 9 with three minutes left before losing by 2. So across 9 home games, they’re… +231. I have a word for that… Dominance.
Indiana Pacers Start Slow But Finish Strong
Indiana’s season kicked off rough — like, really rough. After making it to the conference finals last year, everyone expected big things this year.
However, starting 10-15 and sitting 21st in the league had people worried. Their offense was ranked 19th during that period, and Haliburton was putting up 17.5 points and 8.4 assists with a -2.5 +/-.
Then, around mid-December, they figured things out. They finished with a 40-17 run (4th best in the league) and climbed up to 7th in offensive rating. Even Haliburton got better, bumping his averages to 19.2 points, 9.6 assists, and a +5.9 +/-.
However, they saved their best for the playoffs. Indy took care of Giannis and the Bucks pretty easily, winning 4-1, before shocking everyone by stealing the first two games of the conference semi-final in Cleveland against the Cavs who had the best Eastern record and second-best overall.
Cleveland fought back in Game 3, but the damage was done. The Pacers closed out the series 4-1 in one of the biggest upsets in this year’s playoff.
The most memorable moment came in Game 1 against the Knicks. They were down by 17 in the fourth quarter, and down 9 points with a minute left — a deficit no team had ever overcome in 1,414 previous games.
Somehow, the Pacers clawed back, thanks to Aaron Nesmith’s barrage of threes and a clutch, game-tying shot from Haliburton to send it to OT — and then they won. It truly was one of the most iconic basketball games I’ve seen in ages.
The Pacers won the series 4-2, leading by double digits in four of those six games. So, while OKC bulldozed their way to the finals, Indiana proved it’s all about how you finish, not necessarily how you start.
Key Players: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Tyrese Haliburton
It’s great to see two guards leading the charge for their teams’ first-ever NBA title and doing it in such different ways. That contrast is part of what makes this Final so fun. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a walking bucket; smooth, crafty, and capable of dropping 30 without even breaking a sweat. On the flip side, Tyrese Haliburton is a throwback pass-first guard thriving in an era that’s all about scoring. Yet somehow, he’s still running the show and making it look easy. So what exactly makes these two stars so special?
SGA: The Scoring Machine
2025 was the year of SGA as he finally grabbed the NBA scoring title with that signature herky-jerky game that keeps defenders off balance and guessing. For the fifth straight year, he led the league in drives per game (20.6), comfortably ahead of guys like Jalen Brunson (17.8) and LaMelo Ball (15.1).
His relentless pressure at the rim pulls defenses apart and opens up looks for both himself and teammates, showing off his underrated playmaking skills. And even though he’s the focal point of OKC’s offense with high usage, his composure is elite, posting one of the lowest turnover rates ever among players with a 30% usage and 29% assist rate. In fact, he ranks first and third all-time in that category for two different seasons.
From deep, he was solid too: 37.5% on nearly six attempts per game, and 35.4% on pull-up threes, just edging out Kyrie Irving. But it’s the mid-range where he really cooked - his efficiency from that area helped him notch three of the 13 most efficient 30-point seasons in the history of basketball.
Haliburton: The New Point God
Haliburton might not have SGA’s burst, but he’s the engine of the Pacers’ up-tempo offense, running the show with elite vision and perfectly timed passes. He led the league with a ridiculous 5.5 assist-to-turnover ratio and became just the second player ever (after Muggsy Bogues) to average 9+ assists with under 2 turnovers per game.
It’s not like he’s playing it safe. Haliburton makes tough passes look easy, mixing flair with control. The Steve Nash comparisons make sense: he’s got the playmaking, the touch, the unselfishness, but with a bit more shot-making ability. He’s a legit three-level scorer with deep range, and even though he averaged 18.6 PPG, that number doesn’t tell the full story of how dangerous he is with the ball. Knicks fans can testify and now, OKC fans too, after his game 1 heroics.
Head Coaches: Mark Daigneault vs. Rick Carlisle
This final is a clash between two coaches at different points in their journeys. Mark Daigneault, just 40, is in his fifth year as an NBA head coach while Rick Carlisle, 65, is in his 24th year running the show and has been coaching for 36 years overall.
Mark Daigneault
Mark Daigneault’s first three seasons in OKC were all losing ones, but things took a sharp turn last year when he coached them to a conference-best 57-25 record and picked up the Coach of the Year award along the way.
Sure, they fell short in the conference semis, but that young squad got its first real taste of success.
No shock then that they’ve taken it up another notch this season, finishing with a franchise-record and league-best 68-14 record.
Even during the rebuilding years, Daigneault’s teams were known for their defense, often making the top 10 in that category and this year, they’ve made it their watchword.
While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is getting all the love for his elite scoring, helping them finish with the third-best offense rating, it's their defense that’s been the real game-changer, ranking #1 in the Regular Season, Playoffs, and even the NBA Cup.
They say “defense wins championships,” and right now, it feels like Daigneault’s just a step away from proving that, if he can coach a better last minute than Game 1's.
Rick Carlisle
Rick Carlisle is one of the best basketball coaches of this era; smart, adaptable, and always able to shape his system around the players he’s got. He had a few near wins with the Pistons and in his first run with the Pacers, especially that year of the infamous Malice at the Palace, which cost one of Indiana’s most talented rosters a legit shot at a ring.
Carlisle then moved to Dallas, and alongside Dirk Nowitzki, delivered the Mavs their one and only championship in what was one of the most memorable playoff runs in recent history.
Replicating that success proved tough though, and even with a strong core of Luka Dončić, Jalen Brunson, Kristaps Porziņģis, and Tim Hardaway Jr. years later, the story remained one of missed chances. And so he stepped down.
Now back in Indiana for a second spell, Carlisle has helped steer a rebuilding Pacers side all the way to just their second-ever NBA Finals. He’ll be hoping to make it 2 in 2.
What To Expect: Offense, Offense, Offense… And OKC’s Defense
One of the biggest things to look out for in this series is the offense; it’s got the potential to be absolutely electric, especially those games in Indiana. In the Playoffs so far, the Pacers and OKC sit 2nd and 3rd in offensive rating, only behind the Cavs (who, by the way, Indiana handled with ease).
The Thunder can blow teams away in a flash - particularly at home - while the Pacers run such a smooth, free-flowing offense that no lead against them ever feels safe. For the neutral fan, this promises to be a treat, even without the usual Finals superstar names we’ve gotten used to in recent years.
That said, don’t sleep on OKC’s defense; it might actually be their most dangerous weapon. They finished the Regular Season and Playoffs with the top-ranked defense and have been straight-up suffocating teams.
In 16 playoff games, they’ve held opponents under 100 points six times. The Pacers? Just once.
Stat-wise, OKC led the league in total deflections, loose balls recovered, charges drawn, contested threes, and were second in total contested shots. They’re young, gritty, and, quite frankly, one of the scariest defenses we’ve seen on a basketball court in a while.
And that defensive edge could be what tilts the series.
Favourite Storyline: Trade Paul George, Make The Finals
Paul George is a future Hall of Famer, but it’s kind of crazy (and sad) that he’s never made it to the NBA Finals. And yet, one of the coolest subplots in this year’s Finals is how trading him set both these teams on the path to glory.
Drafted 10th overall by the Pacers in 2010, Paul George quickly became their main guy, leading Indiana to back-to-back Eastern Conference Finals in 2013 and 2014, winning Most Improved Player in 2013, making four All-Star teams, and landing on the All-NBA Third Team three times.
But by 2017, he’d had enough of all the near-misses - remember, this was peak LeBron-in-the-East era - and asked to leave. He was sent to OKC to join forces with Russell Westbrook, and on paper, that duo looked dangerous. Emphasis on “looked”. But we’ll come back to that.
In return, the Pacers got Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis. Fast forward to 2022, and Sabonis gets flipped mid-season to the Kings for a package that included a young guard named Tyrese Haliburton. You know the rest. It’s 2025, and Halliburton is one of the coldest floor generals in the game, with a knack for hitting big-time shots from deep.
Meanwhile, in OKC, the George-Westbrook experiment fizzled out, and when Free Agent and reigning finals MVP Kawhi Leonard made it clear in 2019 that he’d only sign with the Clippers if they got Paul George, they bent over backwards to make it happen.
As a result? The Thunder walked away with Danilo Gallinari and a billion first round picks.
One of those picks turned into Jalen Williams, this season’s breakout star who made the All-Star team, All-NBA, and All-Defensive teams. But the real gem of that trade was a relatively unknown young, silky guard named Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Six years later, SGA has blossomed into a full-blown superstar, just wrapped up an MVP season, led the league in scoring, and carried OKC to a franchise-record 68 wins.
Moral of the story? NBA teams trying to build a contender should consider (acquiring and) trading away Paul George. You’re welcome, Philly.
BetKing offers you the chance to win big by betting on different basketball leagues like the NBA and WNBA. Join us today to get value for money.
Try out the best betting app in the market and book a bet today to start your journey towards winning millions.