Betking_ng_ Afcon 2023 round of 16 betting tips.jpg

The just concluded group stage of the AFCON has given us a taste of what to expect from the tournament, and we have to say, this is the best appetizer we’ve ever been served. What makes a great tournament, you might ask? It’s a mixture of things - great storylines, the stars rising to the occasion, the “underdogs” defying the odds, big matches living up to expatiations, great goals, drama, and more.  

 
**The Greatest Africa Cup of Nations Tournament ever?** 

As the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar ended with the thrilling 3-3 final clash between Argentina and France, the predominant feeling among the online sports betting community was that we had just witnessed the best men’s World Cup. Fast forward a few months, and Spain claimed the title of world champions in the Women’s World Cup in Australia in what was similarly tagged the best women’s World Cup. Now, following the conclusion of the group stage in the AFCON, many experts have already proclaimed AFCON 2023 as the greatest AFCON ever. 

So, what’s behind this sudden surge in the perception of excellence in three major tournaments? While various factors may contribute, the most evident reason is the significant narrowing of the gap between traditional football powerhouses and teams from lower tiers. In the men’s FIFA World Cup, Australia secured a second-place finish in Group D, level on point with France and ahead of Tunisia and Denmark. Japan claimed the top spot in Group E, ahead of European giants Spain and Germany, while in Group H, South Korea advanced ahead of Uruguay and Ghana. Morocco emerged as the standout, topping Group F over Croatia, and Belgium, both of which were among the top three teams in the 2018 World Cup. Morocco reached the semifinals, eliminating Portugal and Spain, while making history as the first African/Arab country to achieve this feat. The Women’s World Cup also witnessed its share of surprises, as Brazil, two-time World Champions Germany, and reigning Olympic Gold medallists Canada all faced early exits during the group stage. 

Back to the AFCON, despite only eight teams getting eliminated from the initial pool of 24, some major nations failed to make it through to the round of 16 - including Ghana, Algeria, and Tunisia. We have witnessed the same close in gap between the traditional names and the “smaller teams” we saw on the world stage, and this has led to the excitement among fans. Equatorial Guinea handed hosts, Ivory Coast a 4-0 beatdown while Cape Verde topped Group B ahead of Egypt and Ghana. Mauritania claimed their first ever AFCON win at the expense of 2019 Champions Algeria who finished bottom of the Group. So, what are some of the betting trends we’ve noticed so far? Let’s discuss some of them.  


**Poor Showing By North African Countries**  

Regionally, the Northern part of Africa has been the most disappointing in this AFCON, witnessing the early exits of Algeria and Tunisia. Algeria, for the second consecutive tournament, failed to secure a victory and finished at the bottom of Group D. Despite entering the competition with impressive form, boasting 9 wins and 3 draws in 12 games, they could only muster 2 points. Egypt, while making it to the knockout stages, faced challenges, especially with Mo Salah sidelined. The Pharaohs settled for a draw against Cape Verde on Matchday 3, and their progression hinged on Ghana relinquishing their 2-0 lead over Mozambique in stoppage time. As they prepare for the Round of 16 clash against DR Congo, they may be in for a tricky encounter, but we ultimately expect them to make it through to the quarter-finals, and we have the best odds for this compared to other betting sites.  

● Bet on Egypt to Beat DR Congo in the Round of 16 

The standout performers from North Africa are **Mauritania** and **Morocco** . Both nations have been deliberate in fostering the growth of football over the last decade, and their efforts have been duly rewarded. Mauritania, making their third successive appearance at the AFCON, secured their first-ever win, a 1-0 win over Algeria. As for Morocco, there have been no hiccups for them. They comfortably finished top of their Group, as expected, and earned a favourable draw in the next round. This AFCON has seen a record number of accredited journalists sent to cover the tournament, with Morocco (over 200) accounting for the most by any nation. This act shows the self-confidence in themselves, and it’s no wonder they are one of the favourites to win the tournament.  

● Bet on Morocco to Beat South Africa in the Round of 16 

● Bet on Morocco to win AFCON 2023 

**Goals Galore**  

Over the past eight editions of the AFCON, there has been a [steady decline in goal-scoring](https://m.betking.com/blog/betting-tips/afcon-2024-analytics/), from 3.09 per game in Ghana 2008 to 1.92 in Cameroon 2021. Expectations for this edition were aligned with this trend, and we foresaw either a further reduction or a similar goal-to-game ratio as the 2021 edition. Surprisingly, the opposite has occurred, and there has been an explosion of goals. While a sturdy defense has usually paved the way for the eventual champions in recent editions, this time, great attack could be the key. With only 36 games played, 89 goals have been scored, averaging 2.47 goals per game. Notably, 15 out of the 36 games have produced Over 2.5 Goals, while an impressive 26 have featured Over 1.5 Goals. You could make an argument that the rise of the underdogs like Cape Verde & Equatorial Guinea - which have been built on blistering attack - has had the most significant impact on this rise in goals, and you wouldn’t be wrong. Emilio Nsue, with 5 goals, has spearheaded Equatorial **Guinea** (9), making them the top contributors, followed by **Senegal** (8), **Cape Verde** (7), **Egypt** (6), and **Angola** (6), all of whom have made it to the knockout stage. 

● Bet on Equatorial Guinea vs. Guinea to have Over 1.5 Goals 

● Bet on Cape Verde to Defeat Mauritania in the Round of 16 

● Bet on Cape Verde vs. Mauritania to have Over 1.5 Goals 

Groups A (16), B (22), and C (17) have stood out for producing the most goals. However, in true AFCON fashion, some groups have seen lower-scoring affairs, with Group E yielding just 9 goals and Group F, 10. Among the countries entering the Round of 16, DR Congo (2) and Namibia (1) have the fewest goals scored, leading to our bet prediction that they will be eliminated in the upcoming round. 

● Bet on Namibia to lose to Angola in the Round of 16 

● Bet on DR Congo NOT to score in the Round of 16 vs.Egypt 

**Bookings & Red Cards**  

So far, there has been 114 yellow cards and 4 red cards dished out - an average of 3.3 cards per game. Also, 3 of the top 5 most carded teams - Algeria (9), Ghana (9) & Mozambique (7) - have been knocked out, which could mean a reduction in the average cards per game. While the knockout stage is expected to be more intense, especially with the wake-up calls experienced by several big teams, bettors can continue to find value in betting on Under 3.5 total cards, and on BetKing, the best betting site in Nigeria, we have multiple betting offers related to this.  


**Golden Boot Race**  

The Golden Boot race in this tournament has taken an unexpected turn from the initial expectations. Many expected that the reigning CAF African Player of the Year, Victor Osimhen, would lead the race, with other in-form forwards such as Mo Salah and Serhou Guirassy providing tough competition. However, the current frontrunner is Emilio Nsue from Equatorial Guinea, a Right-Back playing for the Spanish Third Tier side CF Intercity, who leads the pack with 5 goals. 

Mo Salah and Serhou Guirassy have faced setbacks because of injuries while for Victor Osimhen, a combination of different factors has led to a poor showing in front of goal. The Super Eagles’ shift to a more defensive 5-3-2 tactical setup, Osimhen’s reluctance to take on penalty duties, and, most notably, his lack of clinical finishing in front of goal—leading the tournament in big chances missed (5)—have resulted in him scoring just once in 3 games. With Emilio Nsue leading the race, the obvious betting tip is on the Guinean to clinch the award. 

● Bet on Emilio Nsue to win the Golden Boot 

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The group stage is over, with the AFCON 2023 teams ready for the knockout stage. What trends can you leverage to win big? Click to find out now! 

Betting Tips

Betting Trends from AFCON 2023 Group Stage Games