Betting Tips
Premier League Title Race: How Will Rodri's Absence Impact Manchester City?
by Ifeanyi Ufomadu
15 Oct 2024
Pep Guardiola and Manchester City have faced and conquered several challenges in their seven years together. From the Catalan's underwhelming first season in the Premier League to the four-year battle with Jurgen Klopp, Guardiola is no stranger to adversity. However, this feels like the hardest one yet.
City's star, Rodri, is expected to miss the entire 2024-25 season after picking up an ACL injury in last month’s 2-2 draw with title rivals Arsenal. This injury could greatly influence football predictions for the rest of the season, and the timing is ironic, given Rodri's recent comments about the possibility of players going on strike due to the unforgiving schedule.
The stats don't lie: City's record with and without their star midfielder is night and day. Last season, they lost just three Premier League games, and he missed all three of those matches due to suspension. In fact, some members of our online betting community began to base their bet predictions for City matches on Rodri’s availability.
The 28-year-old has been one of the world's best players for the past two years, a genuine Ballon d'Or contender. He has gone from one of the best defensive midfielders in England to one of the best players on the planet, a point Pep Guardiola recently emphasized. Speaking at the end of last season, the City boss said;
"He's an unbelievable player, and the best midfield player in the world by far. It's because he's able to do everything.
"It's the tempo he has, especially his character when the situation is going wrong, he steps forward to arrive to the box, go backwards, the ability to play short and long. He's always ready.
"What a signing. Manchester City signed a player that is difficult to understand what we have done in recent years without him. It would've been difficult."
Why is Rodri so important?
Rodri's importance to Manchester City cannot be overstated. With him on the pitch, they have lost just two games in 2024, and only one in 90 minutes.
His Premier League record since arriving from Atletico Madrid is remarkable, with just 19 losses in 174 games (11%). As far as his stats for last season, the Spaniard ranked first in the league for touches (3,988), completed passes (3,359), and progressive passes (378). He was also second in possession won, highlighting the defensive solidity he provides for the Champions.
Compared to other City players, Rodri led in tackle attempts (70), successful tackles (43), and successful duels (174). He also scored eight goals and provided nine assists in 34 Premier League games last season. The man does it all.
Below is a graphical representation of Rodri’s impact over the past two seasons.
Manchester City with Rodri vs without Rodri since 2022
Pep Guardiola and Manchester City have faced and conquered several challenges in their seven years together. From the Catalan's underwhelming first season in the Premier League to the four-year battle with Jurgen Klopp, Guardiola is no stranger to adversity. However, this feels like the hardest one yet.
City's star, Rodri, is expected to miss the entire 2024-25 season after picking up an ACL injury in last month’s 2-2 draw with title rivals Arsenal. This injury could greatly influence football predictions for the rest of the season, and the timing is ironic, given Rodri's recent comments about the possibility of players going on strike due to the unforgiving schedule.
The stats don't lie: City's record with and without their star midfielder is night and day. Last season, they lost just three Premier League games, and he missed all three of those matches due to suspension. In fact, some members of our online betting community began to base their bet predictions for City matches on Rodri’s availability.
The 28-year-old has been one of the world's best players for the past two years, a genuine Ballon d'Or contender. He has gone from one of the best defensive midfielders in England to one of the best players on the planet, a point Pep Guardiola recently emphasized. Speaking at the end of last season, the City boss said;
"He's an unbelievable player, and the best midfield player in the world by far. It's because he's able to do everything.
"It's the tempo he has, especially his character when the situation is going wrong, he steps forward to arrive to the box, go backwards, the ability to play short and long. He's always ready.
"What a signing. Manchester City signed a player that is difficult to understand what we have done in recent years without him. It would've been difficult."
Why is Rodri so important?
Rodri's importance to Manchester City cannot be overstated. With him on the pitch, they have lost just two games in 2024, and only one in 90 minutes.
His Premier League record since arriving from Atletico Madrid is remarkable, with just 19 losses in 174 games (11%). As far as his stats for last season, the Spaniard ranked first in the league for touches (3,988), completed passes (3,359), and progressive passes (378). He was also second in possession won, highlighting the defensive solidity he provides for the Champions.
Compared to other City players, Rodri led in tackle attempts (70), successful tackles (43), and successful duels (174). He also scored eight goals and provided nine assists in 34 Premier League games last season. The man does it all.
Below is a graphical representation of Rodri’s impact over the past two seasons.
Manchester City with Rodri vs without Rodri since 2022
72 Games 9 77.8% Win % 60% 5.6% Lose % 40% 2.53 Goals scored per game 2.33 0.85 Goals conceded per game 1.22
| 72 | Games | 9 |
| 77.8% | Win % | 60% |
| 5.6% | Lose % | 40% |
| 2.53 | Goals scored per game | 2.33 |
| 0.85 | Goals conceded per game | 1.22 |
How can Pep Guardiola replace Rodri?
So, who can replace City's metronomic midfielder? Matheus Nunes and Mateo Kovacic have both been used in a deeper role, and returning club legend Ilkay Gundogan has refined his game in recent years to be more of a threat in the box. However, he is 33 and starting to show signs of decline.
Guardiola has even experimented with centre-backs John Stones and Manuel Akanji in the holding role, but no one has been able to get close to the levels Rodri is capable of. After City's 1-1 draw against Newcastle, Pep insisted the club will find a solution.
"Rodri is irreplaceable and the team won't play with the best midfielder in the world for a long, long time," Guardiola said.
"Of course, it's a big, big blow for us. We don't want this, but we will still have a good season. I trust a lot in my players, I have a duty to find a solution."
That solution, at least until the January window, seems to be using Kovacic in the Rodri role. He is a sharp passer, strong ball carrier, and excellent at keeping possession when under pressure.
However, his numbers do not compare favourably to Rodri's, and Kovacic lacks the positional awareness to prevent counter-attacks - as seen against Brentford, Newcastle, and most tellingly against Fulham, where the past EPL winners were fortunate to steal a 3-2 win after giving up several chances.
There have been suggestions that City could make a significant move in the January transfer window to replace Rodri.
Recent reports have linked the Premier League champions to several promising young talents, including FC Porto's 23-year-old Argentine midfielder Alan Varela and Torino's 22-year-old midfielder Samuele Ricci.
The imminent return of Kevin De Bruyne from injury will also provide a major boost, as the Citizens play some of their best football with the Belgian playmaker on the pitch.
The stats back it up too: since 2019, Pep's men have earned just four points from eight league matches where neither Rodri nor De Bruyne featured.
With the 2024-25 season set to extend well into next summer due to the Club World Cup, it will be fascinating to see how Guardiola navigates a 60+ game season without his lieutenant.
Which teams can take advantage of Rodri’s injury?
The landscape of the Premier League title race has shifted dramatically with Rodri's injury. Arsenal fans always believed they would pose the biggest threat to the champions, and now they have real reason to think they can win the title.
Mikel Arteta's men have started the season brilliantly, unbeaten in the league and combining ruthless finishing with a water-tight defence and a set-piece routine that no club seems to have an answer to.
They have already shown they can reach 89 points, a tally that City may struggle to match without Rodri.
You can get the best odds on BetKing by backing Arteta’s men to finally dethrone Manchester City.
How can Pep Guardiola replace Rodri?
So, who can replace City's metronomic midfielder? Matheus Nunes and Mateo Kovacic have both been used in a deeper role, and returning club legend Ilkay Gundogan has refined his game in recent years to be more of a threat in the box. However, he is 33 and starting to show signs of decline.
Guardiola has even experimented with centre-backs John Stones and Manuel Akanji in the holding role, but no one has been able to get close to the levels Rodri is capable of. After City's 1-1 draw against Newcastle, Pep insisted the club will find a solution.
"Rodri is irreplaceable and the team won't play with the best midfielder in the world for a long, long time," Guardiola said.
"Of course, it's a big, big blow for us. We don't want this, but we will still have a good season. I trust a lot in my players, I have a duty to find a solution."
That solution, at least until the January window, seems to be using Kovacic in the Rodri role. He is a sharp passer, strong ball carrier, and excellent at keeping possession when under pressure.
However, his numbers do not compare favourably to Rodri's, and Kovacic lacks the positional awareness to prevent counter-attacks - as seen against Brentford, Newcastle, and most tellingly against Fulham, where the past EPL winners were fortunate to steal a 3-2 win after giving up several chances.
There have been suggestions that City could make a significant move in the January transfer window to replace Rodri.
Recent reports have linked the Premier League champions to several promising young talents, including FC Porto's 23-year-old Argentine midfielder Alan Varela and Torino's 22-year-old midfielder Samuele Ricci.
The imminent return of Kevin De Bruyne from injury will also provide a major boost, as the Citizens play some of their best football with the Belgian playmaker on the pitch.
The stats back it up too: since 2019, Pep's men have earned just four points from eight league matches where neither Rodri nor De Bruyne featured.
With the 2024-25 season set to extend well into next summer due to the Club World Cup, it will be fascinating to see how Guardiola navigates a 60+ game season without his lieutenant.
Which teams can take advantage of Rodri’s injury?
The landscape of the Premier League title race has shifted dramatically with Rodri's injury. Arsenal fans always believed they would pose the biggest threat to the champions, and now they have real reason to think they can win the title.
Mikel Arteta's men have started the season brilliantly, unbeaten in the league and combining ruthless finishing with a water-tight defence and a set-piece routine that no club seems to have an answer to.
They have already shown they can reach 89 points, a tally that City may struggle to match without Rodri.
You can get the best odds on BetKing by backing Arteta’s men to finally dethrone Manchester City.
● Bet on Arsenal to win the Premier League title
@2.40
Liverpool's true mettle will be tested after the international break, as they face a brutal run of games: Chelsea at home, Arsenal away, Brighton at home, Manchester City at home, and a visit from European champions Real Madrid.
The main issue facing Slot will be squad depth, as the lack of transfer activity could come back to haunt them. However, if they continue their strong start, they will certainly be in the running come the end of the season.
Liverpool's true mettle will be tested after the international break, as they face a brutal run of games: Chelsea at home, Arsenal away, Brighton at home, Manchester City at home, and a visit from European champions Real Madrid.
The main issue facing Slot will be squad depth, as the lack of transfer activity could come back to haunt them. However, if they continue their strong start, they will certainly be in the running come the end of the season.
● Bet on Liverpool to win the Premier League title
@4.50
Aston Villa and Chelsea are two teams that must not be overlooked, with outside chances of making a push. Unai Emery's Villa have lost just one of their opening 10 games in all competitions - a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal at Villa Park.
Emery has done an outstanding job, and Villa's 1-0 defeat against Bayern Munich was hailed as a giant-killing effort. In reality, Villa matched their illustrious opponents stride for stride and earned a well-deserved victory.
They are so well-drilled, and their disappointment with the 0-0 draw against Manchester United at the weekend shows how far they have come.
While the league title may be a step too far, you can get excellent value by making a bet prediction on Emery’s men finishing in the top 4 for a second season running.
Aston Villa and Chelsea are two teams that must not be overlooked, with outside chances of making a push. Unai Emery's Villa have lost just one of their opening 10 games in all competitions - a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal at Villa Park.
Emery has done an outstanding job, and Villa's 1-0 defeat against Bayern Munich was hailed as a giant-killing effort. In reality, Villa matched their illustrious opponents stride for stride and earned a well-deserved victory.
They are so well-drilled, and their disappointment with the 0-0 draw against Manchester United at the weekend shows how far they have come.
While the league title may be a step too far, you can get excellent value by making a bet prediction on Emery’s men finishing in the top 4 for a second season running.
● Bet on Aston Villa to finish in the Premier League top four
@4.50
Chelsea, meanwhile, are flying high, led by the excellent Cole Palmer, who has contributed 6 goals and 5 assists in just 7 league games this season; an outrageous return for a player who just keeps getting better.
While Enzo Maresca believes the Blues are not ready for a title tilt just yet, you can get the best odds by backing the Blues to push City, Liverpool and Arsenal all the way.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are flying high, led by the excellent Cole Palmer, who has contributed 6 goals and 5 assists in just 7 league games this season; an outrageous return for a player who just keeps getting better.
While Enzo Maresca believes the Blues are not ready for a title tilt just yet, you can get the best odds by backing the Blues to push City, Liverpool and Arsenal all the way.
● Bet on Chelsea to finish in the Premier League top 2
@10.00
You should never write a Guardiola team off, especially after proving his excellence time and again. One thing is clear, Rodri’s injury all but guarantees fans and the online betting community another dramatic title race.
You can place a bet on Manchester City and all your favourite teams in Europe’s top leagues on the best betting site in Nigeria.
Join us today and start getting value for money.
You should never write a Guardiola team off, especially after proving his excellence time and again. One thing is clear, Rodri’s injury all but guarantees fans and the online betting community another dramatic title race.
You can place a bet on Manchester City and all your favourite teams in Europe’s top leagues on the best betting site in Nigeria.
Join us today and start getting value for money.