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UFC 292 will take place in Boston and will feature an exciting championship doubleheader; the Bantamweight title clash and the Women’s Strawweight championship bout. Ahead of this event, we will preview the fight card, and provide our professional betting tips to help guide your wagers. 

 

**Aljamain Sterling (c) vs. Sean O’Malley (Bantamweight)** 

UFC 292’s main event will see Jamaica’s **Aljamain Sterling** face United States’ **Sean O’Malley**. Riding on a **9-fight winning streak**  Sterling will be defending his Bantamweight title for the fourth time against the American rising star.  

Sterling is motivated to secure a victory, fuelled by the lack of recognition he has received from both the media and fans for his recent victories. Notably, his split decision win against Petr Yan, his victory over TJ Dillashaw who was nursing an injury, and his win against Henry Cejudo, who had been absent from the cage for three years, have all been overshadowed by skepticism.  

**Sean O’Malley** too has had his fair share of doubters over the quality of his opponents but, ironically, it was October’s win against Petr Yan that has earned him some credibility heading into this fight. He comes into this fight on **a 4-fight winning streak.**  

 

**Contrasting styles** 

One thing to keep an eye on is the clash of styles. **Aljamain Sterling** is an elite grappler. He maintains an average of **2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes,** a significant contrast to **O’Malley’s 0.45 takedowns per 15 minutes.**  

Sterling has also secured **victory via submission in 35% of his fights**  in contrast to **O’Malley’s 7%.**  

Sean O’Malley, meanwhile, is a dynamic kick boxer with potent knockout abilities, having garnered the **Performance of the Night Bonus in 7 out of his last 8 fights.**  

Impressively, 73% of O’Malley’s triumphs have come by KO/TKO, in sharp contrast to Sterling’s 13%. Additionally, O’Malley has a superior rate of **Significant Strikes Landed per Minute**  with a rate of **7.43 compared to Sterling’s 4.78.**  

 

**Our picks** 

Sean O’Malley has a few things going against him this weekend which have swayed our betting tips against him.  

First, he has shown vulnerabilities when up against skilled grapplers. For instance, in his bout against Andre Soukhamthath, he struggled as he was taken down four times. Similarly, against Yan, he endured six takedowns and spent over five minutes under control. Sterling just so happens to be excellent at takedowns; he’s just coming off a fight where he out-grappled Olympic gold medallist, Henry Cejudo.  

In Sterling’s last 3 fights, he has 11 takedowns and 19 minutes of control time. O’Malley has also never been in a fight longer than 3 rounds in his career while 3 of Sterling’s last 4 wins have gone past 3 rounds. So, the longer the fight goes, the more the momentum swings the Jamaican’s way.  

 

**Bet Prediction:**

Aljamain Sterling to win 

**Co-headliner fight: Zhang Weili (c) vs. Amanda Lemos (Women’s Strawweight)** 

Chinese fighter Zhang Weili had a highly successful year in 2022, securing victory in both her matches and garnering the Performance of the Night accolade for each triumph. She regained her Strawweight Championship from Carla Esparza which she had lost to Rose Namajunas in April 2021 and failed to win back in the rematch months later.  

Those defeats to Esparza are her only losses in 10 years, and it’s no wonder she’s an overwhelming favorite in the online sports betting community. Ahead of her fight with Amanda Lemos, she’ll be aiming to continue this streak.  

 

**Clash of styles** 

Zhang Weili holds a distinct advantage over Lemos in terms of her adaptability to varying opponents. A notable **48% of her victories stem from KO/TKO finishes** , with an additional **35% resulting from submissions.** She maintains a superior rate of  **Significant Strikes** landed per minute when compared to Lemos, **boasting 5.79 in contrast to Lemos’ 4.51.**  Furthermore, Zhang’s average **Takedown** count per bout stands at  **1.97, whereas Lemos’ sits at 1.12.**  

Zhang’s prowess as a resilient striker presents a challenging scenario for Lemos. Proof of this is three of Zhang’s last four wins which were secured within the first two rounds. The only bout within that timeframe that went the full distance was her title defense against Joanna Jędrzejczyk. In that encounter, Zhang remarkably connected with **186 Significant Strikes,**  beating the Polish fighter to a pulp. Feel free to google the photos of that fight if you’re wondering who to back here.  

 

**Bet Prediction:**

Zhang Weili to win 

**Ian Machado Garry vs. Neil Magny (Welterweight)** 

Nicknamed “The Future”, 25-year-old  **Ian Machado Garry has never lost a fight** in his professional Mixed Martial Arts career and boasts a 12-0 record. Since joining the UFC in 2021, he’s won 5 straight fights and, hailing from Ireland, he’s rightfully hailed as the heir apparent to Conor McGregor’s legacy. With a Garry win priced @1.18, this is viewed as the most lopsided match of the night by many fans and for good reason.  


In Garry’s 5 UFC victories, 3 have been from KO/TKO while the other two have been by unanimous decisions. In fact, all 12 of his professional wins have come from either KO/TKO, submissions, or unanimous decisions. **He’s literally never had a decision go against him.**   


Neil Magny is 11 years older and is disadvantaged heading into this fight, especially when you consider he’s **lost 2 of his last 4 fights.** In terms of  **Significant Strikes per minute,**  Magny lands just over half of what Garry achieves, with a rate of 3.52 in contrast to **Garry’s impressive 6.85.**  Despite Magny’s grappling prowess, Garry’s notable **Takedown defense rate of 63%** since joining the UFC shows that any slight advantage in this aspect would likely be neutralized. Considering these factors, the probability is high that Ian Machado Garry will dominate this match, and it’ll be a huge upset he doesn’t win it. 

 

**Bet Prediction:**

Ian Machado Garry 

**Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight)** 

Da’Mon Blackshear is coming off a fight from just last weekend’s UFC Fight Night where he defeated Jose Johnson by submission in the first round. This was no ordinary submission – Blackshear executed a Twister Submission, a rare maneuver that places him in an elite group as only the third fighter in UFC history to win using that technique. 

However, it’s important to acknowledge that fighters require several months for recuperation following matches. Hence, Blackshear’s decision to step back into the Octagon merely 7 days after his previous fight is quite unusual. This unorthodox choice might explain why what should have been a more evenly matched bout has garnered widespread predictions favoring a win for Mario Bautista. 

At high odds of 2.77, we’re tempted to go with a win for Da’Mon Blackshear as our bet of the day but there’s just so much riding against him. Not only did he have just one week to prepare for this fight, Blackshear lands fewer **Significant Strikes** compared to Bautista, with a rate of  **3.68 against Bautista’s 5.33.**  Additionally, his average  **Takedown count per 15 minutes**  is lower than Bautista’s, recording **1.76 as opposed to Bautista’s 2.91.**  This disadvantage is accentuated by his significantly lower **Takedown Accuracy** of 29% in contrast to Bautista’s impressive 68%. While the prospect of Blackshear winning two fights in a week is undeniably appealing from a narrative perspective, we’ll stick with head over heart and go with Mario Bautista.  

 

**Bet Prediction: **

Mario Bautista to win 

**Marlon Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz (Bantamweight)** 

Despite Marlon Vera’s recent loss, he remains the favored contender in this upcoming bout. Both fighters possess striking skills and, given that Pedro Munhoz has never suffered a knockout defeat, the prevailing expectation is that this match will go the distance.  

We expect victory to be claimed by the fighter who shows superior punching prowess and this is where Marlon Vera holds an advantage. **Standing at 5’8" compared to Munhoz’s 5’6",**  Vera enjoys  **a longer arm reach and leg reach.**  He intends to use these to exploit Munhoz’s weaker striking defense, which could prove pivotal in determining the outcome, considering the slim margins at play. 



While it’s been some time since Vera secured a win via submission (since 2019), it’s noteworthy that 40% of his UFC victories have come by submissions - a trick he can pull out of the hat if need be. This added dimension could serve as a tactical surprise during the fight. 

 

**Bet Prediction:** 

Marlon Vera to win 

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Betting Tips

Preview: UFC 292

Aljamain Sterling to win

Zhang Weili to win

Ian Machado Garry

Mario Bautista to win

Marlon Vera to win