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Who Will Win The Premier League?

All We’re finally at the business end of the season and Pep Guardiola’s boys are heavy favorites to claim what would be their fifth Premier League title in six years and their third in a row. If they win, they will become the second team in the Premier League era to achieve this feat, with the first being Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United, who won five titles in six seasons between 1995/96 and 2000/01. They will be the third team to win three consecutive titles, with Manchester United accomplishing this twice under Sir Alex Ferguson in the 1998/99 – 2000/01 and 2006/07 – 2008/09 seasons.

With the Cityzens one point above Arsenal in the current EPL standings, having played one game less, everything points to the blue half of Manchester mirroring the achievement of the red half. However, despite their apparent advantage, Pep Guardiola knows nothing is certain and that even the most favorable odds can be overturned. A vivid reminder of this occurred just over a year ago during the Champions League semi-final between Manchester City and Real Madrid. With the end of regulation time approaching, and with City leading 5-3 on aggregate, a statistic appeared on TV screens showing that City had a 99% chance of progressing to the final, while Real Madrid had only a 1% chance. Real Madrid’s substitute, Rodrygo, scored two goals in stoppage time to level the score at 5-5 and send the game into extra time. A demoralized City then conceded a winning penalty to Benzema in the 95th minute. This event serves as a valuable lesson for Guardiola as he navigates the final five league games of the season: just because something seems unlikely doesn’t mean it’s impossible.

Facts and figures behind Premier League Trophy
Premier League PNG Image - PNG AllCurrent Premier League Table

POSITION	TEAM	P	W	D	L	GD	PTS
1	Man City	33	25	4	4	+57	  79
2	Arsenal	34	24	6	4	+42 	78

Arsenal buckled under pressure over a four game stretch that saw them draw with Liverpool, West Ham and Southampton before losing to Man City at the Etihad. As disappointing as that may have been for the Gunners, perhaps playing with no pressure over their remaining games favors them as all they have to do is win their games and hope Man City slips up. Despite this, Manchester City are the clear favorites to win the title for several reasons, one of which is their exceptional approach to the run-in.

Since Pep Guardiola’s arrival in England during the 2016/2017 season, his team has consistently finished the season strongly. In his first season, he won four of his last five league games (drawing one), and repeated this achievement the following season, winning the title with 100 points. In 2018/19, he won all of his last five games, narrowly beating Liverpool to the title by a single point and although Liverpool took the title from them a year later in the famous “Lockdown Season”, they still finished with a five-game winning streak. The only exception to this was the 2020/21 season, where they won three and lost two of their last five league games. However, with a 12-point lead over Manchester United in second place, they understandably eased off the gas. Last season, with Liverpool in close pursuit, Manchester City finished with four wins and a draw in their last five games to retain the title. In the 30 run-in games since Pep Guardiola arrived in England, they’ve won 25 of 30 games, only losing twice. This remarkable 83% win rate down the stretch is by far superior to any team in the league over that period and a similar win rate (4 in his remaining 5) would guarantee him the title.

Premier League PNG Image - PNG AllThe Premier League Run-In

Manchester City’s Remaining 5	Arsenals’ Remaining 4
vs. Leeds United	at Newcastle United (Away)
at Everton (Away)	vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
vs. Chelsea	at Nottingham Forest (Away)
at Brighton & Hove Albion (Away)	vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers
at Brentford (Away)	

POTENTIAL PITFALLS

Football is as predictable as it is beautiful and what looks like a foregone conclusion could easily get turned on its head. In February, Manchester City defeated Arsenal 3-1 at the Emirates Stadium to take the top spot in the table. However, they immediately drew their next game against Nottingham Forest, causing them to lose their lead, which they only regained after over two months. Let’s explore the potential obstacles that the two title contenders may face if we hope for an exciting finish to the season.

Premier League PNG Image - PNG AllFor Manchester City

Erling Haaland makes the whole world jealous! Man City winners & losers as one-of-a-kind striker smashes another record in win over West Ham | Goal.com UK

More Packed Schedule

Not only do Manchester City have a game more than Arsenal in the league, they have 3 more cup games – a figure that could rise to 4 if they reach the Champions League. Sandwiched in-between their 5 league games are two physically and mentally demanding games against Real Madrid. There’s also an FA Cup final against Manchester United, though that comes after the league. Despite their congested fixture list, Manchester City’s superior squad depth, coupled with Pep Guardiola’s exceptional player management and rotation skills, has seen them successfully navigate their packed schedule winning 14 of their 15 games, with one draw. Still, this packed schedule could be a potential banana skin. In contrast, Arsenal is scheduled to play only four games over the same period, giving them the advantage of a fresher squad.

More Away Games

Three of City’s last five games will come away from home and this could be tough for them. Of those three games, Everton are currently battling relegation and would match their intensity as they try to survive the drop. Brentford handed them their only loss at the Etihad in all competitions this season and would look to complete their first ever league double over them while Brighton would still have a realistic chance of getting European football next season and would be no pushovers.

Shaky Defense At Home

Arsenal have not kept a clean sheet since William Saliba got injured and this inability to shut out attacks has been key to their collapse. However, their defensive issues precede the Frenchman’s injuries. With just three league clean sheets at home all season, the Gunners are ranked 2nd worst in the league, with 20th place Southampton the only team with a worse record. With a very tricky tie against Newcastle coming up at St. James’ Park this weekend, both remaining home games are of even more importance in this run-in and this poor defensive form at the Emirates could haunt them.
 
Arsenal close to striking £200k-per-week deal for Saka to make him club's best paid player

It’s hard to bet against Man City to seal the deal. They’re more experienced, have a deeper squad, better managed and their superior goal difference and the game in hand gives them the luxury of slipping up in one of those five games while Arsenal must remain perfect. Man City also have the hottest striker on the planet in Erling Haaland who has spent his debut season in England breaking records for fun – including Alan Shearer & Andy Cole’s 28-year record for the most goals scored in a single Premier League campaign. The Cityzens could also potentially match their neighbours 1998/99 season record by winning the treble which would crown what has been a remarkable season. Given their exceptional performance over the last three months, it feels written in the stars.

Bet on Man City to win the Champions League @1.68

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Who Wins The EPL?

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